Complete WDC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
WDC DCF Analysis
WDC (Western Digital Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.8B | $12.3B | $13.0B | $12.3B | $11.6B | $11.1B | $10.6B | $10.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -34.5% | 5.6% | -5.8% | -5.2% | -4.7% | -4.2% | -3.8% |
| EBIT | $2.4B | $-1.3B | $-317.0M | $612.5M | $580.6M | $553.4M | $530.0M | $509.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 12.7% | -10.4% | -2.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 29.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.2% | 23.3% | 23.5% | 23.7% | 23.9% |
| NOPAT | $1.7B | $-963.8M | $-237.8M | $470.7M | $445.1M | $423.2M | $404.4M | $388.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 9.0% | -7.8% | -1.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $1.1B | $807.0M | $487.0M | $636.5M | $573.2M | $519.0M | $472.2M | $431.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Depreciation | $929.0M | $828.0M | $568.0M | $654.7M | $620.6M | $591.5M | $566.5M | $545.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Change in NWC | $9.0M | $-2.4B | $-479.0M | $-67.0M | $-50.8M | $-38.7M | $-29.7M | $-22.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | -19.8% | -3.7% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.5B | $1.5B | $322.3M | $555.9M | $543.3M | $534.4M | $528.3M | $524.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -0.1% | -78.5% | 72.5% | -2.3% | -1.6% | -1.1% | -0.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 8.0% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.919 | 0.845 | 0.777 | 0.714 | 0.656 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $511.0M | $459.1M | $415.1M | $377.2M | $344.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $511.0M | $970.0M | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 23.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.48 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.8% |
| Total Debt | $7.4B |
| Market Cap | $18.1B |
| Total Capital | $25.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 29.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 70.9% |
| WACC | 8.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $524.3M |
| Terminal Value | $8.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.1B |
| Net Debt | $5.6B |
| Equity Value | $2.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 326.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $7 |
| Current Share Price | $52 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -87.2% |
Valuation Summary
$6.62
Implied Price
$51.90
Current Price
-87.2%
Upside/Downside
8.8%
WACC
WDC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$80.57
+55.2%
Peer Median: 17.6x
EV/EBITDA
$103.88
+100.1%
Peer Median: 12.4x
P/S Ratio
$51.90
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for WDC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | WDC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.4x | 17.6x | 16.6x | -35.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1x | 12.4x | 12.6x | -34.7% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.3x | 1.3x | 2.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.99B | 17.6x | 17.6x | 1.1x | |
| $22.73B | 8.7x | 5.3x | 0.7x | |
| $20.43B | 18.1x | 12.4x | 3.1x | |
| $17.47B | 171.7x | 65.2x | 5.5x | |
| $18.11B | 11.4x | 8.1x | 1.3x | |
| $9.96B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 231.3x | |
| $5.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $1.81B | 0.0x | 7.9x | 0.5x | |
| $1.42B | 12.7x | 14.9x | 3.8x | |
| $2988.28B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |
WDC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $4.57 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $33.18 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$58.43
Intrinsic Value
$51.90
Current Price
+12.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 4.57 = 102.88
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
102.88 × 33.18 = 3414.11
Step 3: Take square root
√3414.11 = 58.43
Graham Number Result:
$58.43
WDC Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
4.57 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$4.57
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-28T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$112.03
Intrinsic Value
$51.90
Current Price
+115.9%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
WDC Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$4.57
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-28T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$4.57 × 10.0% = $45.73
$45.73
Fair Value
$51.90
Current Price
-11.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
11.4x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
1.14
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).