Complete PSTG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
PSTG DCF Analysis
PSTG (Pure Storage, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $5.0B | $5.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 2.8% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% |
| EBIT | $83.5M | $53.6M | $85.3M | $180.3M | $202.7M | $225.4M | $248.1M | $270.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 20.4% | 32.3% | 27.8% | 26.1% | 26.0% | 25.9% | 25.8% | 25.7% |
| NOPAT | $66.5M | $36.2M | $61.6M | $133.2M | $150.0M | $167.0M | $184.1M | $201.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $158.1M | $195.2M | $226.7M | $217.2M | $232.0M | $245.1M | $256.3M | $265.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Depreciation | $100.4M | $124.4M | $126.7M | $144.7M | $162.7M | $180.9M | $199.1M | $217.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-514.9M | $407.4M | $-161.6M | $-10.4M | $-9.4M | $-8.3M | $-7.3M | $-6.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -18.7% | 14.4% | -5.1% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $523.6M | $-441.9M | $123.1M | $71.1M | $90.1M | $111.2M | $134.3M | $159.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -184.4% | 127.9% | -42.2% | 26.6% | 23.5% | 20.8% | 18.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 19.0% | -15.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.843 | 0.774 | 0.711 | 0.652 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $65.3M | $75.9M | $86.1M | $95.4M | $103.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $65.3M | $141.2M | $227.3M | $322.7M | $426.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 26.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.06 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| Total Debt | $281.2M |
| Market Cap | $17.5B |
| Total Capital | $17.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.4% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $159.2M |
| Terminal Value | $2.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $426.6M |
| Net Debt | $-442.4M |
| Equity Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 342.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $7 |
| Current Share Price | $53 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -86.2% |
Valuation Summary
$7.38
Implied Price
$53.40
Current Price
-86.2%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC
PSTG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$5.48
-89.7%
Peer Median: 17.6x
EV/EBITDA
$6.47
-87.9%
Peer Median: 8.1x
P/S Ratio
$10.77
-79.8%
Peer Median: 1.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PSTG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PSTG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 171.7x | 17.6x | 15.9x | 874.1% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 65.2x | 8.1x | 11.4x | 705.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 5.5x | 1.1x | 2.3x | 395.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.55B | 8.8x | 6.5x | 0.4x | |
| $23.99B | 17.6x | 17.6x | 1.1x | |
| $22.73B | 8.7x | 5.3x | 0.7x | |
| $20.43B | 18.1x | 12.4x | 3.1x | |
| $17.47B | 171.7x | 65.2x | 5.5x | |
| $18.11B | 11.4x | 8.1x | 1.3x | |
| $9.96B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 231.3x | |
| $5.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $1.81B | 0.0x | 7.9x | 0.5x | |
| $2988.28B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |
PSTG Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.31 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.81 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$5.17
Intrinsic Value
$53.40
Current Price
-90.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.31 = 7.00
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
7.00 × 3.81 = 26.68
Step 3: Take square root
√26.68 = 5.17
Graham Number Result:
$5.17
PSTG Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.31 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.31
Latest 10-K • 2025-02-02T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$7.62
Intrinsic Value
$53.40
Current Price
-85.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
PSTG Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.31
Latest 10-K • 2025-02-02T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.31 × 10.0% = $3.11
$3.11
Fair Value
$53.40
Current Price
-94.2%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
171.7x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
17.17
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
PSTG Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$3.42
EPV per Share
$53.40
Current Price
-93.6%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.3B |
| EPV per Share | $3.42 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.5% |
| Debt Weight | 1.5% |
| WACC | 9.1% |