Complete DBD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
DBD DCF Analysis
DBD (Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $3.8B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 8.7% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| EBIT | $-124.9M | $86.9M | $182.1M | $188.0M | $188.4M | $188.7M | $189.0M | $189.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 5.2% | 50.0% | 26.0% | 25.9% | 25.8% | 25.7% | 25.6% |
| NOPAT | $-93.7M | $82.4M | $91.0M | $139.0M | $139.5M | $140.0M | $140.4M | $140.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $53.1M | $24.9M | $17.4M | $38.5M | $37.7M | $37.7M | $37.8M | $37.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $126.0M | $136.3M | $132.3M | $135.3M | $135.5M | $135.8M | $136.0M | $136.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Change in NWC | $28.1M | $566.9M | $-331.3M | $-92.2M | $-73.9M | $-59.2M | $-47.5M | $-38.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.8% | 15.1% | -8.8% | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-48.9M | $-373.1M | $537.3M | $328.0M | $311.3M | $297.3M | $286.1M | $277.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -663.5% | 244.0% | -39.0% | -5.1% | -4.5% | -3.8% | -3.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.4% | -9.9% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.914 | 0.835 | 0.763 | 0.697 | 0.637 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $299.7M | $259.9M | $226.8M | $199.4M | $176.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $299.7M | $559.6M | $786.3M | $985.7M | $1.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 26.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.74 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.9% |
| Total Debt | $1.0B |
| Market Cap | $1.8B |
| Total Capital | $2.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 36.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 63.3% |
| WACC | 9.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $277.2M |
| Terminal Value | $4.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.2B |
| Net Debt | $750.9M |
| Equity Value | $3.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $80 |
| Current Share Price | $48 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +65.6% |
Valuation Summary
$80.26
Implied Price
$48.46
Current Price
+65.6%
Upside/Downside
9.4%
WACC
DBD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-4.91
-110.1%
Peer Median: 18.1x
EV/EBITDA
$129.60
+167.4%
Peer Median: 14.9x
P/S Ratio
$124.41
+156.7%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for DBD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | DBD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -178.6x | 18.1x | 18.3x | -1086.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9x | 14.9x | 19.4x | -47.1% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 1.3x | 2.6x | -61.0% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.43B | 18.1x | 12.4x | 3.1x | |
| $17.47B | 171.7x | 65.2x | 5.5x | |
| $18.11B | 11.4x | 8.1x | 1.3x | |
| $9.96B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 231.3x | |
| $5.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $1.81B | 0.0x | 7.9x | 0.5x | |
| $1.42B | 12.7x | 14.9x | 3.8x | |
| $0.94B | 0.0x | 43.9x | 0.7x | |
| $0.61B | 0.0x | 26.4x | 0.1x | |
| $2988.28B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |