Complete CMPO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
CMPO DCF Analysis
CMPO (CompoSecure, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $378.5M | $390.6M | $420.6M | $473.4M | $527.0M | $580.6M | $633.8M | $686.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.2% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% |
| EBIT | $114.9M | $119.1M | $107.6M | $136.4M | $152.3M | $168.4M | $184.5M | $200.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 30.4% | 30.5% | 25.6% | 28.8% | 28.9% | 29.0% | 29.1% | 29.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 3.2% | 3.9% | 25.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| NOPAT | $111.2M | $114.5M | $80.7M | $125.5M | $137.6M | $149.2M | $160.3M | $170.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 29.4% | 29.3% | 19.2% | 26.5% | 26.1% | 25.7% | 25.3% | 24.9% |
| Capex | $9.1M | $10.9M | $7.4M | $11.0M | $11.6M | $12.2M | $12.6M | $13.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Depreciation | $8.6M | $8.4M | $9.2M | $10.4M | $11.6M | $12.8M | $13.9M | $15.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Change in NWC | $34.3M | $46.3M | $-887.0K | $13.1M | $11.7M | $10.3M | $9.0M | $7.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 9.1% | 11.9% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $76.4M | $65.5M | $83.4M | $111.8M | $125.8M | $139.5M | $152.6M | $165.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -14.2% | 27.2% | 34.1% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 20.2% | 16.8% | 19.8% | 23.6% | 23.9% | 24.0% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.925 | 0.855 | 0.791 | 0.732 | 0.677 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $103.4M | $107.7M | $110.4M | $111.7M | $111.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $103.4M | $211.0M | $321.4M | $433.2M | $544.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 8.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.89 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.3% |
| Total Debt | $201.6M |
| Market Cap | $1.4B |
| Total Capital | $1.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 12.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 87.6% |
| WACC | 8.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $165.0M |
| Terminal Value | $3.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $544.9M |
| Net Debt | $124.2M |
| Equity Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 44.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $56 |
| Current Share Price | $14 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +302.5% |
Valuation Summary
$55.86
Implied Price
$13.88
Current Price
+302.5%
Upside/Downside
8.1%
WACC
CMPO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-2.20
-115.9%
Peer Median: 12.7x
EV/EBITDA
$14.70
+5.9%
Peer Median: 14.9x
P/S Ratio
$3.04
-78.1%
Peer Median: 0.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CMPO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CMPO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -80.0x | 12.7x | 15.6x | -730.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3x | 14.9x | 19.0x | 2.7% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 3.8x | 0.8x | 2.3x | 357.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.47B | 171.7x | 65.2x | 5.5x | |
| $18.11B | 11.4x | 8.1x | 1.3x | |
| $9.96B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 231.3x | |
| $5.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $1.81B | 0.0x | 7.9x | 0.5x | |
| $1.42B | 12.7x | 14.9x | 3.8x | |
| $0.94B | 0.0x | 43.9x | 0.7x | |
| $0.61B | 0.0x | 26.4x | 0.1x | |
| $0.47B | 7.4x | 9.3x | 0.5x | |
| $2988.28B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |
CMPO Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-15.69
EPV per Share
$13.88
Current Price
-213.1%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC: 7.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.7B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-15.69 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 75.2% |
| Debt Weight | 24.8% |
| WACC | 7.8% |