Complete SMCI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
SMCI DCF Analysis
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B | $7.1B | $15.0B | $18.7B | $23.4B | $29.3B | $36.6B | $45.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 37.1% | 110.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $335.2M | $761.1M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.2B | $4.0B |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.5% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 15.7% | 14.7% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 15.4% |
| NOPAT | $282.6M | $649.5M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.7B | $3.4B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 5.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% |
| Capex | $45.2M | $36.8M | $124.3M | $193.9M | $234.2M | $292.8M | $365.9M | $457.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $32.5M | $34.9M | $41.0M | $86.7M | $108.4M | $135.5M | $169.4M | $211.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Change in NWC | $437.9M | $468.5M | $4.8B | $720.3M | $720.3M | $720.3M | $720.3M | $720.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 8.4% | 6.6% | 31.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-168.1M | $179.1M | $-3.7B | $605.9M | $935.0M | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.4B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 206.6% | -2175.4% | 116.3% | 54.3% | 42.7% | 37.1% | 33.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -3.2% | 2.5% | -24.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.911 | 0.829 | 0.755 | 0.688 | 0.626 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $551.7M | $775.3M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $551.7M | $1.3B | $2.3B | $3.6B | $5.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 9.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.36 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.3% |
| Total Debt | $2.2B |
| Market Cap | $24.0B |
| Total Capital | $26.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 8.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.7% |
| WACC | 9.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.4B |
| Terminal Value | $34.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $21.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $5.1B |
| Net Debt | $504.4M |
| Equity Value | $26.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 602.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $43 |
| Current Share Price | $40 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +7.5% |
Valuation Summary
$43.23
Implied Price
$40.20
Current Price
+7.5%
Upside/Downside
9.8%
WACC
SMCI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$39.54
-1.6%
Peer Median: 17.3x
EV/EBITDA
$28.85
-28.2%
Peer Median: 12.4x
P/S Ratio
$45.32
+12.7%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SMCI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SMCI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.6x | 17.3x | 16.1x | 1.7% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.6x | 12.4x | 12.5x | 42.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.1x | 1.3x | 2.6x | -11.3% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2988.28B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x | |
| $76.26B | 17.3x | 15.5x | 0.8x | |
| $23.55B | 8.8x | 6.5x | 0.4x | |
| $23.99B | 17.6x | 17.6x | 1.1x | |
| $22.73B | 8.7x | 5.3x | 0.7x | |
| $20.43B | 18.1x | 12.4x | 3.1x | |
| $17.47B | 171.7x | 65.2x | 5.5x | |
| $18.11B | 11.4x | 8.1x | 1.3x | |
| $9.96B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 231.3x |
SMCI Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.28 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $9.00 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$21.49
Intrinsic Value
$40.20
Current Price
-46.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.28 = 51.33
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
51.33 × 9.00 = 461.79
Step 3: Take square root
√461.79 = 21.49
Graham Number Result:
$21.49
SMCI Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.28 × (8.5 + 2 × 108.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.28
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-30T00:00:00
Historical 3Y108.7%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y70.2%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$515.39
Intrinsic Value
$40.20
Current Price
+1182.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 108.7%
SMCI Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.28
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-30T00:00:00
Historical 3Y108.7%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y70.2%
5-year earnings growth
108.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.28 × 108.7% = $248.00
$248.00
Fair Value
$40.20
Current Price
+516.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
17.6x
Current P/E
108.7%
Growth Rate
0.16
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
SMCI Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$21.94
EPV per Share
$40.20
Current Price
-45.4%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC: 8.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $13.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $13.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.6B |
| EPV per Share | $21.94 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 91.8% |
| Debt Weight | 8.2% |
| WACC | 8.7% |