Complete SNDK Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
SNDK DCF Analysis
SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2013 (Historical) | 2014 (Historical) | 2015 (Historical) | 2016 (Projected) | 2017 (Projected) | 2018 (Projected) | 2019 (Projected) | 2020 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | $6.6B | $5.6B | $5.5B | $5.5B | $5.4B | $5.4B | $5.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 7.4% | -16.0% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| EBIT | $1.6B | $1.6B | $616.6M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| EBIT Margin % | 25.3% | 23.5% | 11.1% | 20.0% | 20.1% | 20.2% | 20.3% | 20.4% |
| Tax Rate % | 50.0% | 50.0% | 35.5% | 43.1% | 41.3% | 39.5% | 37.6% | 35.8% |
| NOPAT | $781.1M | $779.0M | $397.7M | $627.4M | $645.6M | $664.2M | $683.2M | $702.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 12.7% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 13.1% |
| Capex | $213.4M | $232.8M | $413.8M | $303.2M | $285.8M | $269.7M | $254.6M | $240.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.5% | 3.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Depreciation | $464.1M | $578.5M | $621.1M | $504.2M | $500.4M | $496.9M | $493.9M | $491.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Change in NWC | $695.4M | $-1.4B | $1.6B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 11.3% | -21.3% | 29.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $336.3M | $2.5B | $-1.0B | $828.4M | $860.1M | $891.4M | $922.4M | $953.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 653.9% | -141.1% | 179.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 5.5% | 38.3% | -18.7% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.832 | 0.759 | 0.692 | 0.632 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $755.6M | $715.7M | $676.6M | $638.7M | $602.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $755.6M | $1.5B | $2.1B | $2.8B | $3.4B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 43.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.77 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.1% |
| Total Debt | $2.2B |
| Market Cap | $5.4B |
| Total Capital | $7.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 28.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 71.7% |
| WACC | 9.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $953.1M |
| Terminal Value | $13.7B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $8.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $3.4B |
| Net Debt | $672.0M |
| Equity Value | $11.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 212.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $53 |
| Current Share Price | $38 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +42.5% |
Valuation Summary
$53.43
Implied Price
$37.50
Current Price
+42.5%
Upside/Downside
9.6%
WACC
SNDK Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-179.51
-578.7%
Peer Median: 12.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 12.4x
P/S Ratio
$56.98
+51.9%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SNDK's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SNDK Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.7x | 12.7x | 16.4x | -120.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 12.4x | 16.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.8x | 1.3x | 2.7x | -34.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.73B | 8.7x | 5.3x | 0.7x | |
| $20.43B | 18.1x | 12.4x | 3.1x | |
| $17.47B | 171.7x | 65.2x | 5.5x | |
| $18.11B | 11.4x | 8.1x | 1.3x | |
| $9.96B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 231.3x | |
| $5.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $1.81B | 0.0x | 7.9x | 0.5x | |
| $1.42B | 12.7x | 14.9x | 3.8x | |
| $0.94B | 0.0x | 43.9x | 0.7x | |
| $2988.28B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |
SNDK Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.4 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.4 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$22.86
EPV per Share
$37.50
Current Price
-39.0%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC: 8.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.4B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $4.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $4.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.2B |
| EPV per Share | $22.86 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 78.8% |
| Debt Weight | 21.2% |
| WACC | 8.0% |