Complete ECG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
ECG DCF Analysis
ECG (Everus Construction Group, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.8B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.7% | -0.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| EBIT | $164.6M | $190.5M | $189.9M | $197.8M | $213.6M | $229.3M | $244.8M | $260.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.5% | 25.5% | 27.4% | 25.8% | 25.7% | 25.6% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| NOPAT | $122.6M | $141.9M | $137.9M | $146.8M | $158.7M | $170.6M | $182.3M | $193.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Capex | $35.8M | $35.6M | $48.3M | $42.7M | $43.2M | $43.4M | $43.3M | $43.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Depreciation | $21.5M | $23.1M | $25.3M | $25.4M | $27.0M | $28.5M | $30.0M | $31.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $57.6M | $31.9M | $23.9M | $20.4M | $17.2M | $14.5M | $12.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $108.2M | $71.9M | $83.0M | $105.5M | $122.2M | $138.5M | $154.5M | $170.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -33.5% | 15.4% | 27.1% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.836 | 0.699 | 0.584 | 0.489 | 0.408 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $88.2M | $85.4M | $81.0M | $75.5M | $69.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $88.2M | $173.6M | $254.6M | $330.1M | $399.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 25.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.88 |
| Cost of Equity | 21.2% |
| Total Debt | $363.2M |
| Market Cap | $3.5B |
| Total Capital | $3.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 9.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 90.6% |
| WACC | 19.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $170.0M |
| Terminal Value | $1.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $415.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $399.5M |
| Net Debt | $277.2M |
| Equity Value | $538.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 51.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $69 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -84.6% |
Valuation Summary
$10.56
Implied Price
$68.59
Current Price
-84.6%
Upside/Downside
19.6%
WACC
ECG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$104.78
+52.8%
Peer Median: 35.2x
EV/EBITDA
$71.42
+4.1%
Peer Median: 16.6x
P/S Ratio
$68.59
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ECG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ECG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.1x | 35.2x | 43.0x | -34.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.2x | 16.6x | 19.3x | 3.7% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6.17B | 24.9x | 16.6x | 2.0x | |
| $5.54B | 376.8x | 16.5x | 2.3x | |
| $4.40B | 56.7x | 14.4x | 1.7x | |
| $4.12B | 33.1x | 11.8x | 1.0x | |
| $4.69B | 23.0x | 13.2x | 0.7x | |
| $3.50B | 23.1x | 17.2x | 1.1x | |
| $2.91B | 35.2x | 30.9x | 3.3x | |
| $2.86B | 85.4x | 26.5x | 0.8x | |
| $2.58B | 116.8x | 24.7x | 0.6x | |
| $1.88B | 4731.4x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
ECG Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.97 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $8.29 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$23.55
Intrinsic Value
$68.59
Current Price
-65.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.97 = 66.89
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
66.89 × 8.29 = 554.47
Step 3: Take square root
√554.47 = 23.55
Graham Number Result:
$23.55
ECG Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.97 × (8.5 + 2 × 9.3%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.97
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y9.3%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$80.76
Intrinsic Value
$68.59
Current Price
+17.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 9.3%
ECG Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.97
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y9.3%
3-year earnings growth
9.3%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.97 × 9.3% = $27.75
$27.75
Fair Value
$68.59
Current Price
-59.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
23.1x
Current P/E
9.3%
Growth Rate
2.47
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).