Complete STKS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
STKS DCF Analysis
STKS (The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $316.6M | $332.8M | $673.3M | $841.7M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.1% | 102.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $23.4M | $9.3M | $10.8M | $42.1M | $52.6M | $65.8M | $82.2M | $102.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 7.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 6.2% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| NOPAT | $22.0M | $9.3M | $8.1M | $37.0M | $45.5M | $56.1M | $69.0M | $85.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $32.6M | $53.5M | $71.6M | $76.2M | $90.4M | $107.4M | $127.5M | $151.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.3% | 16.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Depreciation | $12.1M | $15.7M | $34.1M | $38.2M | $47.7M | $59.6M | $74.5M | $93.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Change in NWC | $32.2M | $-44.3M | $-50.3M | $-13.8M | $-13.8M | $-13.8M | $-13.8M | $-13.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 10.2% | -13.3% | -7.5% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.1% | -0.8% | -0.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-30.7M | $15.8M | $20.9M | $12.8M | $16.6M | $22.1M | $29.9M | $40.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 151.2% | 32.7% | -38.7% | 29.9% | 33.1% | 34.9% | 35.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -9.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.931 | 0.866 | 0.806 | 0.750 | 0.698 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $11.9M | $14.4M | $17.8M | $22.4M | $28.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $11.9M | $26.3M | $44.2M | $66.6M | $94.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 12.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.02 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.1% |
| Total Debt | $641.0M |
| Market Cap | $109.7M |
| Total Capital | $750.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 85.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 14.6% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $40.5M |
| Terminal Value | $836.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $583.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $94.8M |
| Net Debt | $612.9M |
| Equity Value | $65.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -40.8% |
Valuation Summary
$2.10
Implied Price
$3.55
Current Price
-40.8%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC
STKS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-9.39
-364.5%
Peer Median: 12.8x
EV/EBITDA
$21.55
+507.1%
Peer Median: 19.1x
P/S Ratio
$6.24
+75.8%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for STKS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | STKS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.8x | 12.8x | 18.8x | -137.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.7x | 19.1x | 17.1x | 8.5% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 0.6x | 1.4x | -43.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.36B | 50.5x | 19.1x | 1.3x | |
| $0.33B | 7.6x | 26.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.33B | 12.8x | 10.5x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 58.5x | 0.6x | |
| $0.21B | 12.2x | 10.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 20.7x | 0.3x | |
| $0.02B | 2.6x | 13.2x | 0.1x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 123.3x | 0.1x | |
| $219.57B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |
STKS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-11.74
EPV per Share
$3.55
Current Price
-430.7%
Upside/Downside
4.3%
WACC: 4.3% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 4.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-11.74 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 14.7% |
| Debt Weight | 85.3% |
| WACC | 4.3% |