Complete DENN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
DENN DCF Analysis
DENN (Denny's Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $456.4M | $463.9M | $452.3M | $480.5M | $507.3M | $532.9M | $557.0M | $579.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 1.6% | -2.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% |
| EBIT | $113.2M | $52.8M | $45.3M | $74.0M | $78.6M | $83.1M | $87.5M | $91.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 24.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 24.9% | 26.0% | 26.3% | 25.4% | 25.4% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.2% |
| NOPAT | $85.1M | $39.1M | $33.4M | $55.2M | $58.7M | $62.1M | $65.3M | $68.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 18.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Capex | $11.8M | $10.0M | $28.6M | $14.7M | $14.8M | $14.7M | $14.6M | $14.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.6% | 2.2% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $14.9M | $14.4M | $14.9M | $15.4M | $16.3M | $17.1M | $17.9M | $18.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-15.1M | $-15.9M | $3.6M | $-5.6M | $-4.8M | $-4.0M | $-3.3M | $-2.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -3.3% | -3.4% | 0.8% | -1.2% | -0.9% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $103.1M | $59.4M | $16.1M | $61.5M | $65.0M | $68.5M | $72.0M | $75.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -42.4% | -73.0% | 283.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 22.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.930 | 0.865 | 0.804 | 0.748 | 0.695 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $57.2M | $56.2M | $55.0M | $53.8M | $52.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $57.2M | $113.4M | $168.5M | $222.3M | $274.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.65 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.5% |
| Total Debt | $408.2M |
| Market Cap | $206.5M |
| Total Capital | $614.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 66.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 33.6% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $75.4M |
| Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $274.7M |
| Net Debt | $406.5M |
| Equity Value | $933.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $18 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +340.4% |
Valuation Summary
$17.75
Implied Price
$4.03
Current Price
+340.4%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC
DENN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$4.16
+3.3%
Peer Median: 12.7x
EV/EBITDA
$22.66
+462.3%
Peer Median: 19.0x
P/S Ratio
$5.19
+28.7%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for DENN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | DENN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.3x | 12.7x | 18.7x | -3.2% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 19.0x | 17.0x | -47.2% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.6x | 1.4x | -22.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.36B | 50.0x | 19.0x | 1.3x | |
| $0.33B | 7.5x | 26.3x | 0.7x | |
| $0.33B | 12.7x | 10.5x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 58.6x | 0.6x | |
| $0.21B | 12.3x | 10.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 20.7x | 0.3x | |
| $0.02B | 2.6x | 13.2x | 0.1x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 123.4x | 0.1x | |
| $220.29B | 27.1x | 19.5x | 8.6x |
DENN Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$7.55
EPV per Share
$4.03
Current Price
+87.3%
Upside/Downside
5.4%
WACC: 5.4% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 5.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $7.55 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 34.2% |
| Debt Weight | 65.8% |
| WACC | 5.4% |