Complete TWNP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TWNP DCF Analysis
TWNP (Twin Hospitality Group) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $165.9M | $360.5M | $353.8M | $442.3M | $552.8M | $691.0M | $863.8M | $1.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 117.4% | -1.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.9% |
| EBIT | $11.7M | $8.7M | $-8.3M | $22.1M | $27.6M | $34.6M | $43.2M | $53.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 7.0% | 2.4% | -2.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% | 17.5% | 18.3% | 19.2% | 20.0% |
| NOPAT | $8.8M | $8.7M | $-6.2M | $18.4M | $22.8M | $28.2M | $34.9M | $43.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 5.3% | 2.4% | -1.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Capex | $17.8M | $23.9M | $25.1M | $36.1M | $42.8M | $50.9M | $60.4M | $71.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% |
| Depreciation | $8.5M | $12.4M | $23.5M | $22.4M | $28.0M | $35.0M | $43.7M | $54.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.1% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $-26.3M | $16.2M | $-4.0M | $-4.0M | $-4.0M | $-4.0M | $-4.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | -7.3% | 4.6% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-596.0K | $23.5M | $-24.1M | $8.7M | $12.0M | $16.3M | $22.2M | $30.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 4047.7% | -202.4% | 136.3% | 36.7% | 36.6% | 36.1% | 35.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.4% | 6.5% | -6.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.957 | 0.915 | 0.876 | 0.838 | 0.801 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $8.4M | $10.9M | $14.3M | $18.6M | $24.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $8.4M | $19.3M | $33.6M | $52.2M | $76.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 16.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -1.01 |
| Cost of Equity | 0.0% |
| Total Debt | $569.8M |
| Market Cap | $206.2M |
| Total Capital | $776.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 73.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 26.6% |
| WACC | 4.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $30.1M |
| Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $76.3M |
| Net Debt | $560.5M |
| Equity Value | $731.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 50.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $15 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +254.9% |
Valuation Summary
$14.58
Implied Price
$4.11
Current Price
+254.9%
Upside/Downside
4.5%
WACC
TWNP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-11.75
-385.9%
Peer Median: 12.2x
EV/EBITDA
$4.99
+21.4%
Peer Median: 19.1x
P/S Ratio
$4.11
+0.0%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TWNP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TWNP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.3x | 12.2x | 17.0x | -135.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.5x | 19.1x | 16.1x | 206.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 0.6x | 1.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.38B | 6.6x | 9.6x | 0.5x | |
| $0.36B | 50.5x | 19.1x | 1.3x | |
| $0.33B | 7.6x | 26.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.33B | 12.8x | 10.5x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 58.5x | 0.6x | |
| $0.21B | 12.2x | 10.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 20.7x | 0.3x | |
| $0.02B | 2.6x | 13.2x | 0.1x | |
| $219.57B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |