Complete RRGB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
RRGB DCF Analysis
RRGB (Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 2.9% | -4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| EBIT | $-56.4M | $4.5M | $-53.1M | $65.2M | $67.7M | $70.1M | $72.3M | $74.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -4.5% | 0.3% | -4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-42.3M | $3.4M | $-39.8M | $48.9M | $50.8M | $52.6M | $54.3M | $55.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -3.3% | 0.3% | -3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $38.2M | $49.4M | $26.0M | $39.3M | $38.8M | $38.2M | $37.4M | $36.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $76.2M | $66.2M | $57.7M | $68.3M | $71.0M | $73.5M | $75.8M | $78.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Change in NWC | $24.1M | $2.5M | $4.4M | $5.1M | $4.3M | $3.5M | $2.9M | $2.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-28.3M | $17.7M | $-12.6M | $72.7M | $78.7M | $84.4M | $89.8M | $94.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 162.4% | -171.1% | 679.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.2% | 1.4% | -1.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.934 | 0.872 | 0.814 | 0.760 | 0.710 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $67.9M | $68.6M | $68.7M | $68.2M | $67.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $67.9M | $136.5M | $205.2M | $273.4M | $340.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.41 |
| Cost of Equity | 14.8% |
| Total Debt | $578.4M |
| Market Cap | $115.4M |
| Total Capital | $693.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 83.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 16.6% |
| WACC | 7.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $94.8M |
| Terminal Value | $2.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $340.7M |
| Net Debt | $547.7M |
| Equity Value | $1.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 15.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $82 |
| Current Share Price | $7 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1164.4% |
Valuation Summary
$82.29
Implied Price
$6.51
Current Price
+1164.4%
Upside/Downside
7.1%
WACC
RRGB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-59.25
-1010.5%
Peer Median: 12.2x
EV/EBITDA
$5.91
-9.3%
Peer Median: 19.5x
P/S Ratio
$23.34
+258.6%
Peer Median: 0.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RRGB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RRGB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.3x | 12.2x | 11.7x | -111.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 123.3x | 19.5x | 15.9x | 533.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.3x | 1.3x | -72.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 58.5x | 0.6x | |
| $0.21B | 12.2x | 10.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 20.7x | 0.3x | |
| $0.02B | 2.6x | 13.2x | 0.1x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 123.3x | 0.1x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.04B | 4.9x | 718.7x | 0.2x | |
| $219.57B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |