Complete PBPB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
PBPB DCF Analysis
PBPB (Potbelly Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $452.0M | $491.4M | $462.6M | $495.5M | $527.1M | $557.5M | $586.4M | $613.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 8.7% | -5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| EBIT | $950.0K | $10.0M | $11.0M | $24.8M | $26.4M | $27.9M | $29.3M | $30.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 6.5% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| NOPAT | $888.3K | $8.6M | $11.0M | $21.3M | $22.4M | $23.3M | $24.2M | $25.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $8.4M | $17.1M | $19.3M | $15.5M | $15.7M | $15.7M | $15.7M | $15.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $11.9M | $12.1M | $12.7M | $12.9M | $13.8M | $14.6M | $15.3M | $16.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Change in NWC | $3.4M | $20.4M | $-14.0M | $2.0M | $1.7M | $1.4M | $1.2M | $1.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.8% | 4.2% | -3.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $935.3K | $-16.7M | $18.4M | $16.8M | $18.8M | $20.7M | $22.6M | $24.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -1889.1% | 210.1% | -9.1% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.2% | -3.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.909 | 0.827 | 0.752 | 0.683 | 0.621 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $15.2M | $15.5M | $15.6M | $15.5M | $15.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $15.2M | $30.8M | $46.4M | $61.8M | $77.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 14.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.69 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.7% |
| Total Debt | $154.7M |
| Market Cap | $327.7M |
| Total Capital | $482.4M |
| Debt Weighting | 32.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 67.9% |
| WACC | 10.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $24.4M |
| Terminal Value | $334.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $207.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $77.0M |
| Net Debt | $143.1M |
| Equity Value | $141.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $11 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -57.5% |
Valuation Summary
$4.62
Implied Price
$10.86
Current Price
-57.5%
Upside/Downside
10.0%
WACC
PBPB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$17.67
+62.7%
Peer Median: 12.3x
EV/EBITDA
$11.57
+6.5%
Peer Median: 19.6x
P/S Ratio
$8.96
-17.5%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PBPB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PBPB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.5x | 12.3x | 17.0x | -38.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.4x | 19.6x | 17.7x | 34.9% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 0.6x | 1.5x | 21.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.37B | 2.3x | 25.5x | 0.2x | |
| $0.37B | 6.4x | 9.6x | 0.5x | |
| $0.36B | 50.3x | 19.1x | 1.3x | |
| $0.33B | 7.5x | 26.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.33B | 12.7x | 10.5x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 58.5x | 0.6x | |
| $0.21B | 12.3x | 10.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 20.7x | 0.3x | |
| $221.12B | 27.2x | 19.6x | 8.6x |
PBPB Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.44 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $1.90 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$7.84
Intrinsic Value
$10.86
Current Price
-27.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.44 = 32.36
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
32.36 × 1.90 = 61.51
Step 3: Take square root
√61.51 = 7.84
Graham Number Result:
$7.84
PBPB Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.44 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.44
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-29T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$35.24
Intrinsic Value
$10.86
Current Price
+224.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
PBPB Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.44
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-29T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.44 × 10.0% = $14.38
$14.38
Fair Value
$10.86
Current Price
+32.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
7.5x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
0.75
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
PBPB Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$17.81
EPV per Share
$10.86
Current Price
+64.0%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC: 7.4% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $17.81 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 68.3% |
| Debt Weight | 31.7% |
| WACC | 7.4% |