Complete GENK Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
GENK DCF Analysis
GENK (GEN Restaurant Group, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $163.7M | $181.0M | $208.4M | $260.4M | $318.8M | $383.2M | $452.9M | $527.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 10.6% | 15.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 20.2% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| EBIT | $12.4M | $8.1M | $476.0K | $13.0M | $15.9M | $19.2M | $22.6M | $26.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 7.5% | 4.5% | 0.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 2.7% | 0.2% | 7.3% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| NOPAT | $12.0M | $8.1M | $441.2K | $11.2M | $13.5M | $16.0M | $18.7M | $21.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 7.3% | 4.5% | 0.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $8.1M | $17.2M | $23.8M | $14.2M | $16.5M | $18.8M | $21.2M | $23.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| Depreciation | $6.9M | $9.5M | $13.7M | $13.9M | $17.1M | $20.5M | $24.2M | $28.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-9.8M | $28.1M | $-12.7M | $-14.1M | $-13.8M | $-13.3M | $-12.6M | $-11.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.0% | 15.5% | -6.1% | -5.4% | -4.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $20.7M | $-27.6M | $3.0M | $25.1M | $27.9M | $31.0M | $34.4M | $38.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -233.6% | 110.8% | 741.6% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.6% | -15.2% | 1.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.822 | 0.770 | 0.721 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $23.5M | $24.5M | $25.5M | $26.5M | $27.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $23.5M | $48.0M | $73.5M | $100.0M | $127.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 14.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.25 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | $163.0M |
| Market Cap | $21.0M |
| Total Capital | $184.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 88.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 11.4% |
| WACC | 6.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $38.0M |
| Terminal Value | $916.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $661.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $127.4M |
| Net Debt | $139.3M |
| Equity Value | $649.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $139 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +3230.9% |
Valuation Summary
$139.07
Implied Price
$4.17
Current Price
+3230.9%
Upside/Downside
6.8%
WACC
GENK Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-4.56
-209.1%
Peer Median: 12.2x
EV/EBITDA
$46.82
+1021.4%
Peer Median: 19.5x
P/S Ratio
$24.86
+495.5%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GENK's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GENK Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -11.2x | 12.2x | 12.4x | -191.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2x | 19.5x | 16.7x | -32.0% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.6x | 1.4x | -83.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.33B | 7.6x | 26.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.33B | 12.8x | 10.5x | 0.7x | |
| $0.21B | 0.0x | 58.5x | 0.6x | |
| $0.21B | 12.2x | 10.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 20.7x | 0.3x | |
| $0.02B | 2.6x | 13.2x | 0.1x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 123.3x | 0.1x | |
| $219.57B | 27.0x | 19.5x | 8.5x |
GENK Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$3.10
EPV per Share
$4.17
Current Price
-25.9%
Upside/Downside
4.1%
WACC: 4.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 4.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $3.10 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 10.7% |
| Debt Weight | 89.3% |
| WACC | 4.1% |