Complete SNAP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SNAP DCF Analysis
SNAP (Snap Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | $4.6B | $5.4B | $6.2B | $7.0B | $7.9B | $8.8B | $9.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 0.1% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| EBIT | $-1.4B | $-1.4B | $-787.3M | $309.3M | $352.0M | $395.9M | $440.2M | $484.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -30.3% | -30.4% | -14.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-1.0B | $-1.0B | $-590.5M | $231.9M | $264.0M | $296.9M | $330.1M | $363.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -22.7% | -22.8% | -11.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $129.3M | $211.7M | $194.8M | $186.1M | $201.3M | $215.0M | $227.1M | $237.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $202.2M | $168.4M | $158.1M | $226.8M | $258.1M | $290.3M | $322.8M | $355.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Change in NWC | $38.8M | $-199.3M | $-178.5M | $-105.4M | $-95.9M | $-86.3M | $-76.8M | $-67.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.8% | -4.3% | -3.3% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.0B | $-892.7M | $-448.7M | $378.0M | $416.8M | $458.5M | $502.6M | $548.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 11.8% | 49.7% | 184.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -22.0% | -19.4% | -8.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.885 | 0.832 | 0.783 | 0.736 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $355.5M | $368.8M | $381.5M | $393.4M | $404.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $355.5M | $724.3M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.58 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.0% |
| Total Debt | $4.2B |
| Market Cap | $14.0B |
| Total Capital | $18.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 23.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 76.8% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $548.8M |
| Terminal Value | $14.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.9B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.9B |
| Net Debt | $3.2B |
| Equity Value | $9.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1659.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $8 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -31.2% |
Valuation Summary
$5.77
Implied Price
$8.38
Current Price
-31.2%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
SNAP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-5.80
-169.2%
Peer Median: 18.5x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$19.73
+135.3%
Peer Median: 6.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SNAP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SNAP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -26.7x | 18.5x | 17.9x | -244.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.6x | 14.6x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.5x | 6.0x | 7.6x | -57.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2032.79B | 18.5x | 13.6x | 5.7x | |
| $1680.86B | 26.0x | 19.5x | 9.9x | |
| $22.43B | 12.1x | 99.8x | 6.0x | |
| $20.48B | 191.0x | 691.3x | 14.1x | |
| $14.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $7.47B | 15.2x | 10.8x | 2.2x | |
| $4.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1335.5x | |
| $4.60B | 0.0x | 89.1x | 12.7x | |
| $3.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.8x |