Complete META Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
META DCF Analysis
META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $116.6B | $134.9B | $164.5B | $192.4B | $221.8B | $252.3B | $283.6B | $315.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 15.7% | 21.9% | 17.0% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% |
| EBIT | $33.6B | $46.8B | $69.4B | $67.7B | $78.3B | $89.3B | $100.7B | $112.2B |
| EBIT Margin % | 28.8% | 34.7% | 42.2% | 35.2% | 35.3% | 35.4% | 35.5% | 35.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 19.5% | 17.6% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 18.4% | 19.3% |
| NOPAT | $27.0B | $38.5B | $61.2B | $57.2B | $65.4B | $73.8B | $82.2B | $90.5B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 23.2% | 28.6% | 37.2% | 29.7% | 29.5% | 29.2% | 29.0% | 28.7% |
| Capex | $31.4B | $27.3B | $37.3B | $32.1B | $35.1B | $37.9B | $40.5B | $42.8B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 27.0% | 20.2% | 22.6% | 16.7% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| Depreciation | $8.7B | $11.2B | $15.5B | $16.1B | $18.6B | $21.2B | $23.8B | $26.4B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-13.0B | $20.9B | $13.0B | $7.6B | $7.0B | $6.4B | $5.8B | $5.1B |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -11.2% | 15.5% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $17.3B | $1.6B | $26.4B | $33.7B | $41.8B | $50.6B | $59.7B | $69.1B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -90.9% | 1583.3% | 27.3% | 24.4% | 20.8% | 18.0% | 15.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 14.8% | 1.2% | 16.1% | 17.5% | 18.9% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 21.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.831 | 0.758 | 0.691 | 0.630 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $30.7B | $34.8B | $38.3B | $41.3B | $43.5B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $30.7B | $65.5B | $103.8B | $145.1B | $188.6B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Tax Rate | 15.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.24 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | $49.1B |
| Market Cap | $1680.9B |
| Total Capital | $1729.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 2.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.2% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $69.1B |
| Terminal Value | $987.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $622.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $188.6B |
| Net Debt | $5.2B |
| Equity Value | $805.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2614.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $308 |
| Current Share Price | $669 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -53.9% |
Valuation Summary
$308.27
Implied Price
$668.56
Current Price
-53.9%
Upside/Downside
9.7%
WACC
META Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$475.52
-28.9%
Peer Median: 18.5x
EV/EBITDA
$466.92
-30.2%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$404.09
-39.6%
Peer Median: 6.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for META's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | META Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.0x | 18.5x | 17.9x | 40.6% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.5x | 13.6x | 14.6x | 43.6% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 9.9x | 6.0x | 7.6x | 65.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2032.79B | 18.5x | 13.6x | 5.7x | |
| $1680.86B | 26.0x | 19.5x | 9.9x | |
| $22.43B | 12.1x | 99.8x | 6.0x | |
| $20.48B | 191.0x | 691.3x | 14.1x | |
| $14.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $7.47B | 15.2x | 10.8x | 2.2x | |
| $4.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1335.5x | |
| $4.60B | 0.0x | 89.1x | 12.7x | |
| $3.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.8x |
META Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $25.73 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $69.87 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$201.11
Intrinsic Value
$668.56
Current Price
-69.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 25.73 = 578.88
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
578.88 × 69.87 = 40445.33
Step 3: Take square root
√40445.33 = 201.11
Graham Number Result:
$201.11
META Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
25.73 × (8.5 + 2 × 20.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$25.73
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y20.7%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y30.6%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$1284.64
Intrinsic Value
$668.56
Current Price
+92.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 20.7%
META Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$25.73
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y20.7%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y30.6%
5-year earnings growth
20.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$25.73 × 20.7% = $532.98
$532.98
Fair Value
$668.56
Current Price
-20.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
26.0x
Current P/E
20.7%
Growth Rate
1.25
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
META Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 62.4 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 62.4 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$263.12
EPV per Share
$668.56
Current Price
-60.6%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $62.4B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $687.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $687.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.6B |
| EPV per Share | $263.12 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 97.3% |
| Debt Weight | 2.7% |
| WACC | 9.1% |