Complete MTCH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
MTCH DCF Analysis
MTCH (Match Group, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.5% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| EBIT | $889.3M | $916.9M | $823.3M | $976.7M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| EBIT Margin % | 27.9% | 27.3% | 23.7% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.5% | 26.6% | 26.7% |
| Tax Rate % | 4.1% | 16.1% | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 15.9% |
| NOPAT | $853.1M | $769.0M | $644.7M | $881.5M | $923.7M | $962.0M | $996.3M | $1.0B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 26.8% | 22.9% | 18.5% | 23.7% | 23.4% | 23.1% | 22.8% | 22.4% |
| Capex | $49.1M | $67.4M | $50.6M | $70.3M | $70.9M | $71.1M | $70.9M | $70.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Depreciation | $43.6M | $109.5M | $87.5M | $88.5M | $93.9M | $99.2M | $104.1M | $108.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Change in NWC | $276.1M | $413.5M | $108.8M | $146.1M | $124.1M | $104.8M | $88.0M | $73.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 8.7% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $571.5M | $397.6M | $572.9M | $753.6M | $822.7M | $885.3M | $941.5M | $991.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -30.4% | 44.1% | 31.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 17.9% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 20.3% | 20.8% | 21.2% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.844 | 0.775 | 0.712 | 0.654 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $692.2M | $694.0M | $685.9M | $670.0M | $647.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $692.2M | $1.4B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $3.4B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Tax Rate | 9.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.38 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.4% |
| Total Debt | $3.8B |
| Market Cap | $7.5B |
| Total Capital | $11.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 34.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 66.0% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $991.3M |
| Terminal Value | $15.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $3.4B |
| Net Debt | $2.9B |
| Equity Value | $10.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 279.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $39 |
| Current Share Price | $30 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +28.5% |
Valuation Summary
$39.13
Implied Price
$30.46
Current Price
+28.5%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC
MTCH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$37.09
+21.8%
Peer Median: 18.5x
EV/EBITDA
$52.88
+73.6%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$83.92
+175.5%
Peer Median: 6.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MTCH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MTCH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.2x | 18.5x | 17.9x | -17.9% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 13.6x | 14.6x | -20.2% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.2x | 6.0x | 7.6x | -63.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2032.79B | 18.5x | 13.6x | 5.7x | |
| $1680.86B | 26.0x | 19.5x | 9.9x | |
| $22.43B | 12.1x | 99.8x | 6.0x | |
| $20.48B | 191.0x | 691.3x | 14.1x | |
| $14.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $7.47B | 15.2x | 10.8x | 2.2x | |
| $4.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1335.5x | |
| $4.60B | 0.0x | 89.1x | 12.7x | |
| $3.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.8x |
MTCH Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.01 × (8.5 + 2 × 28.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.01
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y28.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$129.58
Intrinsic Value
$30.46
Current Price
+325.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 28.0%
MTCH Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.01
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y28.0%
3-year earnings growth
28.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.01 × 28.0% = $56.26
$56.26
Fair Value
$30.46
Current Price
+84.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
15.2x
Current P/E
28.0%
Growth Rate
0.54
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
MTCH Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.6 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.6 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$26.56
EPV per Share
$30.46
Current Price
-12.8%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC: 7.4% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.6B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $7.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $7.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.3B |
| EPV per Share | $26.56 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 68.8% |
| Debt Weight | 31.2% |
| WACC | 7.4% |