Complete GRND Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
GRND DCF Analysis
GRND (Grindr Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $195.0M | $259.7M | $344.6M | $430.8M | $538.5M | $673.1M | $838.7M | $1.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 33.2% | 32.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| EBIT | $10.2M | $55.4M | $92.6M | $76.8M | $96.5M | $121.3M | $152.0M | $186.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 5.2% | 21.4% | 26.9% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.9% | 24.0% | 24.1% | 24.2% | 24.4% |
| NOPAT | $7.7M | $41.6M | $69.4M | $58.4M | $73.3M | $92.0M | $115.1M | $141.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 3.9% | 16.0% | 20.2% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 13.8% |
| Capex | $5.6M | $4.2M | $945.0K | $6.7M | $8.0M | $9.5M | $11.2M | $13.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Depreciation | $37.5M | $27.0M | $16.9M | $49.6M | $62.0M | $77.5M | $96.6M | $118.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 19.2% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-32.7M | $29.8M | $38.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -16.8% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $72.3M | $34.6M | $47.3M | $101.3M | $127.3M | $160.1M | $200.5M | $246.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -52.1% | 36.8% | 113.9% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.3% | 22.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 37.1% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 23.5% | 23.6% | 23.8% | 23.9% | 24.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.947 | 0.896 | 0.849 | 0.804 | 0.761 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $95.9M | $114.1M | $135.8M | $161.1M | $187.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $95.9M | $210.0M | $345.9M | $507.0M | $694.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 23.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.28 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.7% |
| Total Debt | $293.9M |
| Market Cap | $4.6B |
| Total Capital | $4.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 6.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.0% |
| WACC | 5.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $246.1M |
| Terminal Value | $8.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $6.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $694.2M |
| Net Debt | $234.8M |
| Equity Value | $6.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 175.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $38 |
| Current Share Price | $23 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +60.2% |
Valuation Summary
$37.59
Implied Price
$23.46
Current Price
+60.2%
Upside/Downside
5.6%
WACC
GRND Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-39.22
-267.1%
Peer Median: 83.4x
EV/EBITDA
$3.82
-83.7%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$10.48
-55.3%
Peer Median: 5.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GRND's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GRND Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -49.9x | 83.4x | 50.5x | -159.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 87.7x | 13.6x | 10.9x | 545.7% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 12.7x | 5.7x | 6.4x | 123.9% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.48B | 191.0x | 691.3x | 14.1x | |
| $14.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $7.47B | 15.2x | 10.8x | 2.2x | |
| $4.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1335.5x | |
| $4.60B | 0.0x | 89.1x | 12.7x | |
| $3.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.8x | |
| $11.80B | 83.4x | 88.7x | 9.8x | |
| $3.10B | 85.1x | 15.6x | 3.4x | |
| $2.89B | 642.3x | 3.8x | 0.8x | |
| $2032.79B | 18.5x | 13.6x | 5.7x |