Complete RDDT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
RDDT DCF Analysis
RDDT (Reddit, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $666.7M | $804.0M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.2B | $4.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 20.6% | 61.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-172.2M | $-140.2M | $-560.6M | $81.3M | $101.6M | $127.0M | $158.7M | $198.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -25.8% | -17.4% | -43.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-129.1M | $-105.1M | $-420.4M | $60.9M | $76.2M | $95.2M | $119.0M | $148.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -19.4% | -13.1% | -32.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $6.2M | $9.7M | $6.2M | $16.3M | $20.3M | $25.4M | $31.7M | $39.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $8.0M | $13.7M | $15.6M | $22.3M | $27.8M | $34.8M | $43.5M | $54.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-152.9M | $-31.4M | $701.3M | $-31.7M | $-31.7M | $-31.7M | $-31.7M | $-31.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -22.9% | -3.9% | 53.9% | -1.9% | -1.6% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $25.6M | $-69.8M | $-1.1B | $98.6M | $115.4M | $136.3M | $162.4M | $195.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -372.7% | -1493.8% | 108.9% | 17.0% | 18.1% | 19.2% | 20.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.8% | -8.7% | -85.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.884 | 0.781 | 0.690 | 0.609 | 0.538 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $87.1M | $90.1M | $94.0M | $99.0M | $105.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $87.1M | $177.2M | $271.2M | $370.2M | $475.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.02 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.2% |
| Total Debt | $26.7M |
| Market Cap | $20.5B |
| Total Capital | $20.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.9% |
| WACC | 13.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $195.1M |
| Terminal Value | $1.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $475.2M |
| Net Debt | $-535.4M |
| Equity Value | $2.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 145.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $14 |
| Current Share Price | $111 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -87.5% |
Valuation Summary
$13.87
Implied Price
$110.97
Current Price
-87.5%
Upside/Downside
13.2%
WACC
RDDT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$10.74
-90.3%
Peer Median: 18.5x
EV/EBITDA
$2.12
-98.1%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$46.85
-57.8%
Peer Median: 6.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RDDT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RDDT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 191.0x | 18.5x | 17.9x | 933.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 691.3x | 13.6x | 14.6x | 4991.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 14.1x | 6.0x | 7.6x | 136.9% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2032.79B | 18.5x | 13.6x | 5.7x | |
| $1680.86B | 26.0x | 19.5x | 9.9x | |
| $22.43B | 12.1x | 99.8x | 6.0x | |
| $20.48B | 191.0x | 691.3x | 14.1x | |
| $14.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $7.47B | 15.2x | 10.8x | 2.2x | |
| $4.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1335.5x | |
| $4.60B | 0.0x | 89.1x | 12.7x | |
| $3.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.8x |
RDDT Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.58 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $14.65 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$13.84
Intrinsic Value
$110.97
Current Price
-87.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.58 = 13.07
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
13.07 × 14.65 = 191.49
Step 3: Take square root
√191.49 = 13.84
Graham Number Result:
$13.84
RDDT Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.58 × (8.5 + 2 × 10.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.58
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y10.5%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$17.11
Intrinsic Value
$110.97
Current Price
-84.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 10.5%
RDDT Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.58
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y10.5%
3-year earnings growth
10.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.58 × 10.5% = $6.08
$6.08
Fair Value
$110.97
Current Price
-94.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
191.0x
Current P/E
10.5%
Growth Rate
18.24
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).