Complete GOOGL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
GOOGL DCF Analysis
GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $282.8B | $307.4B | $350.0B | $399.8B | $451.0B | $502.9B | $555.1B | $606.9B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 8.7% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% |
| EBIT | $74.8B | $84.3B | $112.4B | $114.6B | $129.7B | $145.2B | $160.8B | $176.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | 26.5% | 27.4% | 32.1% | 28.7% | 28.8% | 28.9% | 29.0% | 29.1% |
| Tax Rate % | 15.9% | 13.9% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 17.6% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| NOPAT | $62.9B | $72.6B | $93.9B | $96.6B | $108.1B | $119.6B | $131.0B | $142.1B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 22.2% | 23.6% | 26.8% | 24.2% | 24.0% | 23.8% | 23.6% | 23.4% |
| Capex | $31.5B | $32.3B | $52.5B | $46.7B | $50.0B | $53.0B | $55.6B | $57.7B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 11.1% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% |
| Depreciation | $15.9B | $11.9B | $15.3B | $18.5B | $20.9B | $23.3B | $25.7B | $28.1B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-28.4B | $-5.8B | $-15.1B | $-3.7B | $-3.3B | $-3.0B | $-2.6B | $-2.3B |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -10.0% | -1.9% | -4.3% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $75.8B | $58.0B | $71.8B | $72.1B | $82.3B | $92.9B | $103.7B | $114.8B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -23.4% | 23.7% | 0.4% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 10.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 26.8% | 18.9% | 20.5% | 18.0% | 18.2% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.919 | 0.845 | 0.776 | 0.714 | 0.656 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $66.2B | $69.5B | $72.1B | $74.0B | $75.3B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $66.2B | $135.8B | $207.9B | $281.9B | $357.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Tax Rate | 15.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.01 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.9% |
| Total Debt | $25.5B |
| Market Cap | $2032.8B |
| Total Capital | $2058.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.8% |
| WACC | 8.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $114.8B |
| Terminal Value | $1867.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1225.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $357.2B |
| Net Debt | $2.0B |
| Equity Value | $1580.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 12447.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $127 |
| Current Share Price | $167 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -23.9% |
Valuation Summary
$126.96
Implied Price
$166.91
Current Price
-23.9%
Upside/Downside
8.8%
WACC
GOOGL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$166.91
+0.0%
Peer Median: 18.5x
EV/EBITDA
$167.07
+0.1%
Peer Median: 13.6x
P/S Ratio
$176.14
+5.5%
Peer Median: 6.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GOOGL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GOOGL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.5x | 18.5x | 17.9x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 13.6x | 14.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 5.7x | 6.0x | 7.6x | -5.2% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2032.79B | 18.5x | 13.6x | 5.7x | |
| $1680.86B | 26.0x | 19.5x | 9.9x | |
| $22.43B | 12.1x | 99.8x | 6.0x | |
| $20.48B | 191.0x | 691.3x | 14.1x | |
| $14.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $7.47B | 15.2x | 10.8x | 2.2x | |
| $4.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1335.5x | |
| $4.60B | 0.0x | 89.1x | 12.7x | |
| $3.83B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.8x |
GOOGL Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $9.03 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $26.12 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$72.85
Intrinsic Value
$166.91
Current Price
-56.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 9.03 = 203.19
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
203.19 × 26.12 = 5306.81
Step 3: Take square root
√5306.81 = 72.85
Graham Number Result:
$72.85
GOOGL Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
9.03 × (8.5 + 2 × 12.2%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$9.03
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y12.2%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y26.5%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$297.37
Intrinsic Value
$166.91
Current Price
+78.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 12.2%
GOOGL Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$9.03
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y12.2%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y26.5%
5-year earnings growth
12.2%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$9.03 × 12.2% = $110.30
$110.30
Fair Value
$166.91
Current Price
-33.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
18.5x
Current P/E
12.2%
Growth Rate
1.51
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
GOOGL Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 100.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 100.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$87.87
EPV per Share
$166.91
Current Price
-47.4%
Upside/Downside
9.2%
WACC: 9.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $100.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $1093.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1093.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.4B |
| EPV per Share | $87.87 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.8% |
| Debt Weight | 1.2% |
| WACC | 9.2% |