Complete ORCL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
ORCL DCF Analysis
ORCL (Oracle Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $42.4B | $50.0B | $53.0B | $57.8B | $62.5B | $67.0B | $71.5B | $75.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 17.7% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| EBIT | $15.8B | $13.7B | $15.4B | $18.0B | $19.6B | $21.1B | $22.5B | $23.9B |
| EBIT Margin % | 37.3% | 27.4% | 29.0% | 31.2% | 31.3% | 31.4% | 31.5% | 31.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 12.2% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| NOPAT | $13.9B | $12.7B | $13.7B | $16.2B | $17.3B | $18.3B | $19.2B | $20.1B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 32.8% | 25.5% | 25.8% | 28.0% | 27.6% | 27.3% | 26.9% | 26.5% |
| Capex | $4.5B | $8.7B | $6.9B | $5.8B | $6.0B | $6.1B | $6.2B | $6.2B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.6% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Depreciation | $3.1B | $6.1B | $6.1B | $6.0B | $6.5B | $7.0B | $7.4B | $7.9B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-19.3B | $-14.2B | $-6.9B | $-2.5B | $-2.2B | $-1.9B | $-1.6B | $-1.4B |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -45.4% | -28.4% | -13.0% | -4.4% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.2% | -1.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $31.8B | $24.4B | $19.9B | $18.9B | $20.0B | $21.0B | $22.1B | $23.1B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -23.4% | -18.4% | -4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 74.9% | 48.8% | 37.5% | 32.7% | 32.0% | 31.4% | 30.9% | 30.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.917 | 0.841 | 0.771 | 0.707 | 0.648 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $17.3B | $16.8B | $16.2B | $15.6B | $15.0B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $17.3B | $34.1B | $50.3B | $65.9B | $80.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 10.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.28 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.0% |
| Total Debt | $94.5B |
| Market Cap | $474.0B |
| Total Capital | $568.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 16.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 83.4% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $23.1B |
| Terminal Value | $360.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $233.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $80.9B |
| Net Debt | $84.0B |
| Equity Value | $230.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2823.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $82 |
| Current Share Price | $169 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -51.7% |
Valuation Summary
$81.62
Implied Price
$169.02
Current Price
-51.7%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC
ORCL Dividend Discount Model
ORCL dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: 13.1%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$0.00
Intrinsic Value
$169.02
Current Price
-100.0%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $1.70Current | $0.10 | +6.2% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $1.60 | $0.24 | +17.6% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $1.36 | $0.08 | +6.3% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $1.28 | $0.24 | +23.1% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $1.04 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +13.3%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Error in calculation
Substitution:
Required return must be greater than growth rate for Gordon Growth Model
Result:
$0.00
ORCL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$169.02
+0.0%
Peer Median: 39.9x
EV/EBITDA
$198.98
+17.7%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$254.81
+50.8%
Peer Median: 12.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ORCL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ORCL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.9x | 39.9x | 36.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.5x | 23.5x | 23.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 8.5x | 12.8x | 12.7x | -33.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3444.39B | 35.8x | 23.3x | 12.8x | |
| $473.97B | 39.9x | 23.5x | 8.5x | |
| $209.04B | 137.5x | 89.5x | 18.2x | |
| $131.21B | 111.2x | 86.4x | 15.3x | |
| $121.85B | 0.0x | 490.3x | 30.8x | |
| $78.68B | 42.5x | 32.8x | 12.8x | |
| $45.95B | 0.0x | 434.7x | 19.0x | |
| $19.11B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.6x | |
| $17.87B | 28.0x | 15.2x | 4.5x | |
| $7.69B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.1x |
ORCL Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $4.23 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.08 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$17.13
Intrinsic Value
$169.02
Current Price
-89.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 4.23 = 95.20
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
95.20 × 3.08 = 293.52
Step 3: Take square root
√293.52 = 17.13
Graham Number Result:
$17.13
ORCL Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
4.23 × (8.5 + 2 × 4.6%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$4.23
Latest 10-K • 2024-05-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y4.6%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$74.47
Intrinsic Value
$169.02
Current Price
-55.9%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 4.6%
ORCL Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 10.5 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 10.5 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$44.80
EPV per Share
$169.02
Current Price
-73.5%
Upside/Downside
8.3%
WACC: 8.3% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $10.5B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $126.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $126.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.8B |
| EPV per Share | $44.80 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 83.5% |
| Debt Weight | 16.5% |
| WACC | 8.3% |