Complete CRWD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CRWD DCF Analysis
CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2B | $3.1B | $4.0B | $4.9B | $6.2B | $7.7B | $9.7B | $12.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 36.3% | 29.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-190.1M | $-2.0M | $-120.4M | $247.1M | $308.9M | $386.1M | $482.6M | $603.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -8.5% | -0.1% | -3.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 26.2% | 50.0% | 30.2% | 29.7% | 29.2% | 28.7% | 28.1% |
| NOPAT | $-142.6M | $-1.5M | $-60.2M | $172.4M | $217.1M | $273.4M | $344.2M | $433.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -6.4% | -0.0% | -1.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Capex | $266.4M | $237.1M | $254.9M | $421.1M | $500.1M | $593.8M | $705.2M | $837.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 11.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Depreciation | $93.8M | $145.3M | $214.0M | $236.4M | $295.5M | $369.4M | $461.7M | $577.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Change in NWC | $367.1M | $528.8M | $592.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 16.4% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-682.3M | $-622.2M | $-693.4M | $-12.3M | $12.5M | $48.9M | $100.8M | $173.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 8.8% | -11.4% | 98.2% | 201.4% | 291.0% | 106.0% | 71.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -30.4% | -20.4% | -17.5% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.914 | 0.835 | 0.763 | 0.697 | 0.637 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-11.3M | $10.4M | $37.3M | $70.3M | $110.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-11.3M | $-828.8K | $36.5M | $106.8M | $217.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 30.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.16 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.5% |
| Total Debt | $788.9M |
| Market Cap | $121.8B |
| Total Capital | $122.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.4% |
| WACC | 9.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $173.2M |
| Terminal Value | $2.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $217.2M |
| Net Debt | $-3.5B |
| Equity Value | $5.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 244.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $22 |
| Current Share Price | $489 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -95.5% |
Valuation Summary
$21.99
Implied Price
$489.20
Current Price
-95.5%
Upside/Downside
9.4%
WACC
CRWD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-3.12
-100.6%
Peer Median: 39.9x
EV/EBITDA
$22.79
-95.3%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$203.33
-58.4%
Peer Median: 12.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CRWD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CRWD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -6268.4x | 39.9x | 36.5x | -15791.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 490.3x | 23.5x | 23.7x | 1984.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 30.8x | 12.8x | 12.7x | 140.6% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3444.39B | 35.8x | 23.3x | 12.8x | |
| $473.97B | 39.9x | 23.5x | 8.5x | |
| $209.04B | 137.5x | 89.5x | 18.2x | |
| $131.21B | 111.2x | 86.4x | 15.3x | |
| $121.85B | 0.0x | 490.3x | 30.8x | |
| $78.68B | 42.5x | 32.8x | 12.8x | |
| $45.95B | 0.0x | 434.7x | 19.0x | |
| $19.11B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.6x | |
| $17.87B | 28.0x | 15.2x | 4.5x | |
| $7.69B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.1x |