Complete FTNT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
FTNT DCF Analysis
FTNT (Fortinet, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $5.3B | $6.0B | $7.2B | $8.5B | $9.9B | $11.3B | $12.8B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 20.1% | 12.3% | 20.3% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 13.3% |
| EBIT | $969.6M | $1.2B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.3B |
| EBIT Margin % | 21.9% | 23.4% | 30.3% | 25.2% | 25.3% | 25.4% | 25.5% | 25.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 3.2% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| NOPAT | $938.3M | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.8B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 21.2% | 20.9% | 26.1% | 23.2% | 22.9% | 22.5% | 22.2% | 21.8% |
| Capex | $281.2M | $204.1M | $378.9M | $433.7M | $487.2M | $538.7M | $587.3M | $632.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Depreciation | $104.3M | $113.4M | $122.8M | $156.6M | $185.2M | $215.5M | $247.4M | $280.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-550.5M | $-22.7M | $1.2B | $-15.3M | $-14.5M | $-13.5M | $-12.4M | $-11.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -12.5% | -0.4% | 20.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.3B | $1.0B | $97.1M | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -20.8% | -90.7% | 1341.7% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 12.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 29.7% | 19.6% | 1.6% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 19.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.842 | 0.772 | 0.709 | 0.650 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.3B | $2.7B | $4.1B | $5.7B | $7.3B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 8.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.07 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| Total Debt | $994.3M |
| Market Cap | $79.8B |
| Total Capital | $80.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.8% |
| WACC | 9.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.5B |
| Terminal Value | $38.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $25.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $7.3B |
| Net Debt | $-1.9B |
| Equity Value | $34.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 771.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $45 |
| Current Share Price | $104 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -57.2% |
Valuation Summary
$44.58
Implied Price
$104.20
Current Price
-57.2%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC
FTNT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$99.14
-4.9%
Peer Median: 41.0x
EV/EBITDA
$73.65
-29.3%
Peer Median: 24.0x
P/S Ratio
$104.32
+0.1%
Peer Median: 13.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FTNT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FTNT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.1x | 41.0x | 37.2x | 5.1% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.2x | 24.0x | 24.1x | 38.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 13.0x | 13.0x | 13.0x | -0.1% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3510.28B | 36.5x | 23.7x | 13.0x | |
| $486.20B | 41.0x | 24.0x | 8.7x | |
| $211.64B | 139.1x | 90.6x | 18.5x | |
| $133.11B | 112.8x | 87.7x | 15.5x | |
| $118.60B | 0.0x | 476.9x | 30.0x | |
| $79.76B | 43.1x | 33.2x | 13.0x | |
| $47.52B | 0.0x | 449.6x | 19.6x | |
| $18.80B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.2x | |
| $18.14B | 28.4x | 15.3x | 4.6x | |
| $8.16B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.8x |
FTNT Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.42 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $1.94 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$10.26
Intrinsic Value
$104.20
Current Price
-90.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.42 = 54.43
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
54.43 × 1.94 = 105.34
Step 3: Take square root
√105.34 = 10.26
Graham Number Result:
$10.26
FTNT Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.42 × (8.5 + 2 × 45.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.42
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y45.5%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y42.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$240.78
Intrinsic Value
$104.20
Current Price
+131.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 45.5%
FTNT Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.42
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y45.5%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y42.4%
5-year earnings growth
45.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.42 × 45.5% = $110.11
$110.11
Fair Value
$104.20
Current Price
+5.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
43.1x
Current P/E
45.5%
Growth Rate
0.95
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
FTNT Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.7 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.7 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$24.86
EPV per Share
$104.20
Current Price
-76.1%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.7B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $19.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $19.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.8B |
| EPV per Share | $24.86 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.8% |
| Debt Weight | 1.2% |
| WACC | 9.1% |