Complete NOW Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
NOW DCF Analysis
NOW (ServiceNow, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.2B | $9.0B | $11.0B | $13.6B | $16.5B | $19.7B | $23.1B | $26.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 23.8% | 22.4% | 23.7% | 21.4% | 19.2% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| EBIT | $355.0M | $762.0M | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | 4.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 18.5% | 0.0% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| NOPAT | $289.2M | $762.0M | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.0% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Capex | $550.0M | $694.0M | $852.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% |
| Depreciation | $433.0M | $562.0M | $564.0M | $787.2M | $955.5M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Change in NWC | $378.0M | $-237.0M | $417.0M | $-63.6M | $-61.8M | $-58.9M | $-55.3M | $-51.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.2% | -2.6% | 3.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-205.8M | $867.0M | $413.4M | $797.2M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.9B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 521.2% | -52.3% | 92.9% | 27.2% | 24.7% | 22.3% | 20.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.850 | 0.783 | 0.722 | 0.665 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $734.8M | $861.7M | $990.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $734.8M | $1.6B | $2.6B | $3.7B | $4.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 13.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.96 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.5% |
| Total Debt | $2.3B |
| Market Cap | $212.7B |
| Total Capital | $215.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.9% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.9B |
| Terminal Value | $31.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $21.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.9B |
| Net Debt | $-26.0M |
| Equity Value | $26.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 208.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $125 |
| Current Share Price | $1.0K |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -87.8% |
Valuation Summary
$125.21
Implied Price
$1026.75
Current Price
-87.8%
Upside/Downside
8.5%
WACC
NOW Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$302.03
-70.6%
Peer Median: 41.1x
EV/EBITDA
$271.87
-73.5%
Peer Median: 24.1x
P/S Ratio
$719.74
-29.9%
Peer Median: 13.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NOW's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NOW Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 139.8x | 41.1x | 37.2x | 239.9% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 91.0x | 24.1x | 24.1x | 277.6% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 18.5x | 13.0x | 12.9x | 42.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3492.18B | 36.3x | 23.6x | 12.9x | |
| $487.84B | 41.1x | 24.1x | 8.7x | |
| $212.69B | 139.8x | 91.0x | 18.5x | |
| $132.69B | 112.5x | 87.4x | 15.5x | |
| $115.88B | 0.0x | 465.6x | 29.3x | |
| $79.85B | 43.1x | 33.2x | 13.0x | |
| $47.12B | 0.0x | 445.8x | 19.5x | |
| $19.33B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.8x | |
| $18.13B | 28.4x | 15.3x | 4.6x | |
| $8.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.8x |
NOW Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $7.35 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $46.10 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$87.29
Intrinsic Value
$1026.75
Current Price
-91.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 7.35 = 165.28
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
165.28 × 46.10 = 7620.00
Step 3: Take square root
√7620.00 = 87.29
Graham Number Result:
$87.29
NOW Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
7.35 × (8.5 + 2 × 81.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$7.35
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y81.4%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y15.5%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$1257.80
Intrinsic Value
$1026.75
Current Price
+22.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 81.4%
NOW Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$7.35
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y81.4%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y15.5%
5-year earnings growth
81.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$7.35 × 81.4% = $597.68
$597.68
Fair Value
$1026.75
Current Price
-41.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
139.8x
Current P/E
81.4%
Growth Rate
1.72
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
NOW Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.4 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.4 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$75.11
EPV per Share
$1026.75
Current Price
-92.7%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.4B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $15.7B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $15.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.2B |
| EPV per Share | $75.11 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.9% |
| Debt Weight | 1.1% |
| WACC | 9.1% |