Complete GTLB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
GTLB DCF Analysis
GTLB (GitLab Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $424.3M | $579.9M | $759.2M | $949.1M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 36.7% | 30.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-211.4M | $-187.4M | $-142.7M | $47.5M | $59.3M | $74.1M | $92.7M | $115.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -49.8% | -32.3% | -18.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-158.6M | $-140.6M | $-107.0M | $35.6M | $44.5M | $55.6M | $69.5M | $86.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -37.4% | -24.2% | -14.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $6.1M | $1.6M | $3.8M | $9.5M | $11.9M | $14.8M | $18.5M | $23.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $5.6M | $6.5M | $11.0M | $12.3M | $15.4M | $19.2M | $24.0M | $30.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Change in NWC | $1.4M | $-192.8M | $172.4M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.3% | -33.3% | 22.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-160.5M | $57.2M | $-272.3M | $36.8M | $46.4M | $58.4M | $73.4M | $92.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 135.6% | -576.1% | 113.5% | 26.1% | 25.9% | 25.7% | 25.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -37.8% | 9.9% | -35.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.929 | 0.863 | 0.801 | 0.744 | 0.691 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $34.2M | $40.0M | $46.8M | $54.6M | $63.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $34.2M | $74.2M | $121.0M | $175.7M | $239.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.76 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.7% |
| Total Debt | $392.0K |
| Market Cap | $8.2B |
| Total Capital | $8.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 7.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $92.2M |
| Terminal Value | $1.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $239.4M |
| Net Debt | $-227.3M |
| Equity Value | $1.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 160.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $49 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -78.2% |
Valuation Summary
$10.77
Implied Price
$49.41
Current Price
-78.2%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC
GTLB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-1.36
-102.7%
Peer Median: 36.5x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.7x
P/S Ratio
$49.41
+0.0%
Peer Median: 10.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GTLB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GTLB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1328.5x | 36.5x | 33.9x | -3743.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.7x | 23.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 10.8x | 10.8x | 10.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $118.60B | 0.0x | 476.9x | 30.0x | |
| $79.76B | 43.1x | 33.2x | 13.0x | |
| $47.52B | 0.0x | 449.6x | 19.6x | |
| $18.80B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.2x | |
| $18.14B | 28.4x | 15.3x | 4.6x | |
| $8.16B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.8x | |
| $8.26B | 111.0x | 88.3x | 8.3x | |
| $7.20B | 27.7x | 19.8x | 5.7x | |
| $6.90B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.4x | |
| $7.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $3510.28B | 36.5x | 23.7x | 13.0x |