Complete RBRK Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
RBRK DCF Analysis
RBRK (Rubrik, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $627.9M | $886.5M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | Infinity% | 41.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $0 | $-306.5M | $-1.1B | $55.4M | $69.3M | $86.6M | $108.2M | $135.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.0% | -48.8% | -127.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $0 | $-229.9M | $-850.5M | $41.6M | $51.9M | $64.9M | $81.2M | $101.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | NaN% | -36.6% | -95.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $34.3M | $12.3M | $16.9M | $21.4M | $25.5M | $30.2M | $35.9M | $42.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | Infinity% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $103.7M | $18.4M | $28.9M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | Infinity% | 2.9% | 3.3% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $78.3M | $-179.4M | $235.0M | $11.1M | $13.9M | $17.3M | $21.6M | $27.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | Infinity% | -28.6% | 26.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-8.9M | $-44.4M | $-1.1B | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -398.5% | -2319.5% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -Infinity% | -7.1% | -121.1% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.925 | 0.855 | 0.790 | 0.731 | 0.676 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.89 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.2% |
| Total Debt | $332.4M |
| Market Cap | $19.2B |
| Total Capital | $19.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.3% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $146.1M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 154.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $99 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$99.04
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
8.2%
WACC
RBRK Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-221.83
-324.0%
Peer Median: 36.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$58.92
-40.5%
Peer Median: 12.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RBRK's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RBRK Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -16.1x | 36.1x | 33.6x | -144.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.5x | 22.8x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 21.6x | 12.9x | 12.0x | 68.1% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $210.84B | 138.6x | 90.2x | 18.4x | |
| $131.53B | 111.5x | 86.7x | 15.3x | |
| $115.28B | 0.0x | 463.1x | 29.2x | |
| $79.11B | 42.7x | 32.9x | 12.9x | |
| $46.77B | 0.0x | 442.5x | 19.3x | |
| $19.19B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.6x | |
| $18.02B | 28.2x | 15.2x | 4.6x | |
| $8.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.6x | |
| $8.23B | 110.7x | 88.1x | 8.3x | |
| $7.15B | 27.5x | 19.6x | 5.6x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |