Complete ORN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
ORN DCF Analysis
ORN (Orion Group Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $748.3M | $711.8M | $796.4M | $849.3M | $900.2M | $948.6M | $994.6M | $1.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -4.9% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% |
| EBIT | $-12.7M | $-6.6M | $11.5M | $42.5M | $45.0M | $47.4M | $49.7M | $51.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1.7% | -0.9% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 21.8% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.7% | 23.1% |
| NOPAT | $-9.5M | $-5.0M | $8.6M | $33.2M | $35.1M | $36.8M | $38.4M | $39.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1.3% | -0.7% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $14.6M | $8.9M | $14.1M | $16.8M | $16.9M | $16.9M | $16.8M | $16.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $28.9M | $30.6M | $32.7M | $34.7M | $36.8M | $38.8M | $40.7M | $42.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-5.1M | $24.8M | $22.3M | $4.3M | $3.6M | $3.0M | $2.6M | $2.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $9.9M | $-8.0M | $5.0M | $47.0M | $51.4M | $55.7M | $59.7M | $63.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -181.5% | 162.4% | 835.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1.3% | -1.1% | 0.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $43.5M | $44.1M | $44.2M | $43.9M | $43.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $43.5M | $87.6M | $131.7M | $175.7M | $218.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 21.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.99 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | $95.3M |
| Market Cap | $341.4M |
| Total Capital | $436.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 21.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 78.2% |
| WACC | 8.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $63.6M |
| Terminal Value | $1.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $807.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $218.9M |
| Net Debt | $67.0M |
| Equity Value | $959.1M |
| Shares Outstanding | 34.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $28 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +219.5% |
Valuation Summary
$27.57
Implied Price
$8.63
Current Price
+219.5%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC
ORN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$1.63
-81.2%
Peer Median: 21.2x
EV/EBITDA
$10.32
+19.6%
Peer Median: 10.1x
P/S Ratio
$17.54
+103.3%
Peer Median: 0.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ORN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ORN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 112.4x | 21.2x | 27.4x | 431.0% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 10.1x | 13.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.4x | 0.8x | 0.8x | -50.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.97B | 19.3x | 12.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.53B | 175.0x | 23.7x | 1.2x | |
| $0.42B | 13.0x | 9.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.34B | 112.4x | 10.1x | 0.4x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 10.0x | 0.1x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
ORN Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.08 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $4.33 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$2.74
Intrinsic Value
$8.63
Current Price
-68.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.08 = 1.73
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
1.73 × 4.33 = 7.48
Step 3: Take square root
√7.48 = 2.74
Graham Number Result:
$2.74