Complete LQDA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LQDA DCF Analysis
LQDA (Liquidia Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.9M | $17.5M | $14.0M | $17.5M | $21.9M | $27.3M | $34.2M | $42.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 9.7% | -20.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-38.8M | $-73.4M | $-121.3M | $874.8K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -243.3% | -419.6% | -866.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-29.1M | $-55.0M | $-91.0M | $656.1K | $820.1K | $1.0M | $1.3M | $1.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -182.5% | -314.7% | -650.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $592.0K | $1.3M | $4.9M | $695.5K | $825.9K | $980.7K | $1.2M | $1.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.7% | 7.4% | 35.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Depreciation | $3.6M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $3.0M | $3.7M | $4.7M | $5.8M | $7.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 22.9% | 12.5% | 15.7% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Change in NWC | $37.1M | $-19.7M | $72.0M | $-260.2K | $-260.2K | $-260.2K | $-260.2K | $-260.2K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 232.6% | -112.4% | 514.3% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-63.1M | $-34.5M | $-165.7M | $3.2M | $4.0M | $5.0M | $6.2M | $7.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 45.3% | -380.4% | 101.9% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 24.9% | 25.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -395.9% | -197.2% | -1183.9% | 18.3% | 18.2% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.956 | 0.914 | 0.874 | 0.835 | 0.799 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.1M | $3.6M | $4.3M | $5.2M | $6.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.1M | $6.7M | $11.0M | $16.2M | $22.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.04 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.6% |
| Total Debt | $122.4M |
| Market Cap | $1.5B |
| Total Capital | $1.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 7.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.6% |
| WACC | 4.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $7.7M |
| Terminal Value | $378.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $301.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $22.4M |
| Net Debt | $-54.1M |
| Equity Value | $378.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 78.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $18 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -73.0% |
Valuation Summary
$4.81
Implied Price
$17.82
Current Price
-73.0%
Upside/Downside
4.6%
WACC
LQDA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-43.80
-345.8%
Peer Median: 29.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 28.4x
P/S Ratio
$0.45
-97.5%
Peer Median: 2.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LQDA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LQDA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -11.9x | 29.2x | 40.1x | -140.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 28.4x | 22.8x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 107.7x | 2.7x | 4.9x | 3873.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.81B | 29.2x | 10.6x | 2.7x | |
| $1.82B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.8x | |
| $1.55B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $1.52B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 107.7x | |
| $1.30B | 74.5x | 28.4x | 1.9x | |
| $1.21B | 9.0x | 7.1x | 1.7x | |
| $1.33B | 25.8x | 354.4x | 3.6x | |
| $1.24B | 1244.3x | 79.4x | 1.8x | |
| $722.17B | 61.8x | 45.1x | 14.7x |