Complete INVA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
INVA DCF Analysis
INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $331.3M | $310.5M | $358.7M | $369.0M | $378.6M | $387.4M | $395.5M | $402.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -6.3% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| EBIT | $210.0M | $176.7M | $166.9M | $147.6M | $151.4M | $154.9M | $158.2M | $161.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | 63.4% | 56.9% | 46.5% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 23.2% | 7.4% | 37.4% | 20.5% | 20.9% | 21.4% | 21.8% | 22.3% |
| NOPAT | $161.2M | $163.6M | $104.4M | $117.4M | $119.8M | $121.8M | $123.7M | $125.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 48.6% | 52.7% | 29.1% | 31.8% | 31.6% | 31.5% | 31.3% | 31.1% |
| Capex | $67.0K | $411.0K | $270.0K | $3.7M | $3.8M | $3.9M | $4.0M | $4.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $19.5M | $35.7M | $39.9M | $35.1M | $36.0M | $36.8M | $37.6M | $38.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.9% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Change in NWC | $96.9M | $-98.7M | $12.1M | $-4.7M | $-3.8M | $-3.1M | $-2.6M | $-2.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 29.2% | -31.8% | 3.4% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $83.8M | $297.6M | $131.8M | $153.4M | $155.7M | $157.9M | $159.8M | $161.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 255.2% | -55.7% | 16.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 25.3% | 95.8% | 36.8% | 41.6% | 41.1% | 40.8% | 40.4% | 40.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.944 | 0.892 | 0.842 | 0.796 | 0.751 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $144.9M | $138.9M | $133.0M | $127.2M | $121.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $144.9M | $283.8M | $416.8M | $544.0M | $665.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 20.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.37 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.0% |
| Total Debt | $451.1M |
| Market Cap | $1.3B |
| Total Capital | $1.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 25.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 74.9% |
| WACC | 5.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $161.6M |
| Terminal Value | $4.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $665.4M |
| Net Debt | $146.1M |
| Equity Value | $4.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 74.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $57 |
| Current Share Price | $21 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +163.4% |
Valuation Summary
$56.59
Implied Price
$21.48
Current Price
+163.4%
Upside/Downside
5.9%
WACC
INVA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-59.50
-376.9%
Peer Median: 62.5x
EV/EBITDA
$1.90
-91.2%
Peer Median: 28.6x
P/S Ratio
$11.57
-46.1%
Peer Median: 1.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for INVA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | INVA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -22.6x | 62.5x | 43.0x | -136.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 359.6x | 28.6x | 27.1x | 1155.7% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.6x | 1.9x | 4.8x | 85.6% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $1.58B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 111.6x | |
| $1.31B | 74.5x | 28.6x | 1.9x | |
| $1.21B | 9.1x | 7.1x | 1.7x | |
| $1.35B | 25.8x | 359.6x | 3.6x | |
| $1.24B | 1244.3x | 79.6x | 1.8x | |
| $1.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 23.1x | |
| $730.18B | 62.5x | 45.6x | 14.9x |
INVA Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$3.99
EPV per Share
$21.48
Current Price
-81.5%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC: 7.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $3.99 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 77.9% |
| Debt Weight | 22.1% |
| WACC | 7.9% |