Complete SUPN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
SUPN DCF Analysis
SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $667.2M | $607.5M | $661.8M | $695.2M | $726.8M | $756.5M | $784.4M | $810.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -8.9% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| EBIT | $67.3M | $-5.3M | $81.7M | $50.0M | $53.0M | $55.9M | $58.7M | $61.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | 10.1% | -0.9% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.1% | 50.0% | 24.5% | 25.3% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| NOPAT | $67.3M | $-2.6M | $61.6M | $37.3M | $39.6M | $41.8M | $43.9M | $46.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 10.1% | -0.4% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| Capex | $412.0K | $551.0K | $725.0K | $7.0M | $7.3M | $7.6M | $7.8M | $8.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $85.5M | $84.9M | $80.4M | $90.2M | $94.3M | $98.2M | $101.8M | $105.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-240.0M | $156.7M | $190.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -36.0% | 25.8% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $392.4M | $-75.1M | $-49.4M | $120.6M | $126.7M | $132.4M | $137.9M | $143.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -119.1% | 34.1% | 344.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 58.8% | -12.4% | -7.5% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 17.6% | 17.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.931 | 0.866 | 0.806 | 0.750 | 0.698 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $112.3M | $109.7M | $106.8M | $103.5M | $99.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $112.3M | $222.0M | $328.8M | $432.2M | $532.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.71 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.5% |
| Total Debt | $34.3M |
| Market Cap | $1.8B |
| Total Capital | $1.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.2% |
| WACC | 7.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $143.1M |
| Terminal Value | $3.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $532.2M |
| Net Debt | $-35.1M |
| Equity Value | $2.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $47 |
| Current Share Price | $33 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +44.9% |
Valuation Summary
$47.16
Implied Price
$32.55
Current Price
+44.9%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC
SUPN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$32.55
+0.0%
Peer Median: 29.4x
EV/EBITDA
$31.92
-1.9%
Peer Median: 10.7x
P/S Ratio
$95.47
+193.3%
Peer Median: 8.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SUPN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SUPN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.4x | 29.4x | 32.9x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7x | 10.7x | 21.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.7x | 8.0x | 7.9x | -65.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.04B | 26.2x | 316.1x | 11.2x | |
| $2.04B | 13.6x | 8.0x | 2.7x | |
| $1.82B | 29.4x | 10.7x | 2.7x | |
| $1.87B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $1.63B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $728.45B | 62.3x | 45.5x | 14.9x |
SUPN Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.11 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $18.51 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$21.48
Intrinsic Value
$32.55
Current Price
-34.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.11 = 24.94
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
24.94 × 18.51 = 461.55
Step 3: Take square root
√461.55 = 21.48
Graham Number Result:
$21.48
SUPN Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.11 × (8.5 + 2 × 9.9%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.11
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y9.9%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$31.33
Intrinsic Value
$32.55
Current Price
-3.8%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 9.9%
SUPN Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.11
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y9.9%
3-year earnings growth
9.9%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.11 × 9.9% = $10.95
$10.95
Fair Value
$32.55
Current Price
-66.4%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
29.4x
Current P/E
9.9%
Growth Rate
2.97
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
SUPN Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$14.57
EPV per Share
$32.55
Current Price
-55.2%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $14.57 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.2% |
| Debt Weight | 1.8% |
| WACC | 9.1% |