Complete AMPH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
AMPH DCF Analysis
AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $499.0M | $644.4M | $712.8M | $843.3M | $982.1M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 29.1% | 10.6% | 18.3% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 12.0% |
| EBIT | $78.8M | $197.0M | $205.4M | $211.3M | $247.1M | $284.8M | $324.1M | $364.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 15.8% | 30.6% | 28.8% | 25.1% | 25.2% | 25.3% | 25.4% | 25.5% |
| Tax Rate % | 20.2% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 25.8% | 25.7% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.5% |
| NOPAT | $62.8M | $160.4M | $173.3M | $156.8M | $183.5M | $211.8M | $241.3M | $271.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 12.6% | 24.9% | 24.3% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| Capex | $24.0M | $38.2M | $41.0M | $54.7M | $60.5M | $66.0M | $71.1M | $75.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| Depreciation | $28.7M | $41.8M | $57.2M | $57.0M | $66.4M | $76.2M | $86.4M | $96.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Change in NWC | $69.1M | $-19.3M | $96.1M | $-12.6M | $-11.7M | $-10.8M | $-9.8M | $-8.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 13.9% | -3.0% | 13.5% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.6M | $183.3M | $93.3M | $171.6M | $201.1M | $232.7M | $266.3M | $301.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 11421.4% | -49.1% | 83.9% | 17.2% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.3% | 28.4% | 13.1% | 20.4% | 20.5% | 20.6% | 20.8% | 21.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.938 | 0.880 | 0.826 | 0.775 | 0.727 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $161.0M | $177.0M | $192.2M | $206.3M | $219.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $161.0M | $338.0M | $530.2M | $736.5M | $955.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 25.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.76 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.5% |
| Total Debt | $650.5M |
| Market Cap | $1.1B |
| Total Capital | $1.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 37.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 63.0% |
| WACC | 6.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $301.4M |
| Terminal Value | $7.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $955.5M |
| Net Debt | $498.9M |
| Equity Value | $5.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $114 |
| Current Share Price | $23 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +385.9% |
Valuation Summary
$114.17
Implied Price
$23.50
Current Price
+385.9%
Upside/Downside
6.6%
WACC
AMPH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$178.86
+661.3%
Peer Median: 63.0x
EV/EBITDA
$151.30
+543.9%
Peer Median: 29.7x
P/S Ratio
$31.53
+34.2%
Peer Median: 2.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AMPH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AMPH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.3x | 63.0x | 42.9x | -86.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7x | 29.7x | 27.4x | -77.5% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.5x | 2.0x | 4.7x | -25.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.36B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $1.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 72.8x | |
| $1.38B | 74.5x | 29.7x | 2.0x | |
| $1.11B | 8.3x | 6.7x | 1.5x | |
| $1.25B | 25.8x | 335.4x | 3.3x | |
| $1.08B | 1244.3x | 71.7x | 1.5x | |
| $1.46B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 24.5x | |
| $736.39B | 63.0x | 46.0x | 15.0x |
AMPH Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.84 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $14.07 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$29.97
Intrinsic Value
$23.50
Current Price
+27.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.84 = 63.87
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
63.87 × 14.07 = 898.49
Step 3: Take square root
√898.49 = 29.97
Graham Number Result:
$29.97
AMPH Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.84 × (8.5 + 2 × 36.3%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.84
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y36.3%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y25.9%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$230.09
Intrinsic Value
$23.50
Current Price
+879.3%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 36.3%
AMPH Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.84
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y36.3%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y25.9%
5-year earnings growth
36.3%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.84 × 36.3% = $102.98
$102.98
Fair Value
$23.50
Current Price
+338.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
8.3x
Current P/E
36.3%
Growth Rate
0.23
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
AMPH Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$43.22
EPV per Share
$23.50
Current Price
+84.0%
Upside/Downside
7.1%
WACC: 7.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $43.22 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 65.3% |
| Debt Weight | 34.7% |
| WACC | 7.1% |