Complete PCRX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
PCRX DCF Analysis
PCRX (Pacira BioSciences, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $666.8M | $675.0M | $701.0M | $766.9M | $831.8M | $895.1M | $956.5M | $1.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 1.2% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% |
| EBIT | $60.0M | $87.7M | $-73.4M | $38.3M | $41.6M | $44.8M | $47.8M | $50.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 9.0% | 13.0% | -10.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 32.0% | 25.0% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 18.2% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| NOPAT | $60.0M | $59.6M | $-55.0M | $32.0M | $34.4M | $36.6M | $38.7M | $40.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 9.0% | 8.8% | -7.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Capex | $30.1M | $15.2M | $10.6M | $39.5M | $40.7M | $41.6M | $42.2M | $42.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| Depreciation | $91.5M | $75.6M | $78.8M | $92.4M | $100.3M | $107.9M | $115.3M | $122.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 13.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| Change in NWC | $5.6M | $62.1M | $22.6M | $5.2M | $4.5M | $3.9M | $3.3M | $2.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.8% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $115.8M | $58.0M | $-9.5M | $79.8M | $89.4M | $99.0M | $108.5M | $117.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -49.9% | -116.3% | 941.5% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 17.4% | 8.6% | -1.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.885 | 0.832 | 0.783 | 0.736 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $75.0M | $79.1M | $82.4M | $84.9M | $86.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $75.0M | $154.1M | $236.5M | $321.4M | $408.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 16.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.51 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.6% |
| Total Debt | $638.9M |
| Market Cap | $1.2B |
| Total Capital | $1.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 34.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 65.8% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $117.7M |
| Terminal Value | $3.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $408.0M |
| Net Debt | $362.1M |
| Equity Value | $2.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $51 |
| Current Share Price | $27 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +92.9% |
Valuation Summary
$51.23
Implied Price
$26.56
Current Price
+92.9%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
PCRX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-138.95
-623.2%
Peer Median: 62.3x
EV/EBITDA
$12.50
-52.9%
Peer Median: 28.7x
P/S Ratio
$29.68
+11.8%
Peer Median: 2.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PCRX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PCRX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -11.9x | 62.3x | 42.9x | -119.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 79.0x | 28.7x | 27.1x | 175.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.8x | 2.0x | 4.8x | -10.5% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.58B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 111.5x | |
| $1.32B | 74.5x | 28.7x | 2.0x | |
| $1.21B | 9.0x | 7.1x | 1.7x | |
| $1.35B | 25.8x | 360.0x | 3.6x | |
| $1.23B | 1244.3x | 79.0x | 1.8x | |
| $1.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 23.2x | |
| $728.45B | 62.3x | 45.5x | 14.9x |
PCRX Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-29.81
EPV per Share
$26.56
Current Price
-212.2%
Upside/Downside
7.2%
WACC: 7.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $-1.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-1.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-29.81 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 65.8% |
| Debt Weight | 34.2% |
| WACC | 7.2% |