Complete TARS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TARS DCF Analysis
TARS (Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.8M | $17.4M | $183.0M | $228.7M | $285.9M | $357.3M | $446.7M | $558.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -32.4% | 948.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-62.7M | $-143.2M | $-120.6M | $11.4M | $14.3M | $17.9M | $22.3M | $27.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -242.9% | -820.5% | -65.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-47.0M | $-107.4M | $-90.4M | $8.6M | $10.7M | $13.4M | $16.7M | $20.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -182.2% | -615.4% | -49.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $506.0K | $1.5M | $1.6M | $7.1M | $8.5M | $10.0M | $11.9M | $14.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.0% | 8.6% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Depreciation | $325.0K | $877.0K | $1.2M | $5.3M | $6.6M | $8.3M | $10.4M | $12.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.3% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Change in NWC | $45.5M | $9.2M | $56.9M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 176.1% | 53.0% | 31.1% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-92.7M | $-117.2M | $-147.7M | $9.9M | $12.1M | $14.8M | $18.4M | $22.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -26.5% | -25.9% | 106.7% | 21.5% | 22.8% | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -359.0% | -672.0% | -80.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.927 | 0.859 | 0.796 | 0.737 | 0.683 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $9.2M | $10.4M | $11.8M | $13.5M | $15.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $9.2M | $19.6M | $31.4M | $44.9M | $60.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.84 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.0% |
| Total Debt | $72.5M |
| Market Cap | $1.9B |
| Total Capital | $2.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 3.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.3% |
| WACC | 7.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $22.9M |
| Terminal Value | $433.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $296.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $60.6M |
| Net Debt | $-22.4M |
| Equity Value | $379.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $10 |
| Current Share Price | $45 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -77.7% |
Valuation Summary
$10.08
Implied Price
$45.21
Current Price
-77.7%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC
TARS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-78.48
-273.6%
Peer Median: 29.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 10.7x
P/S Ratio
$45.21
+0.0%
Peer Median: 8.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TARS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TARS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -17.0x | 29.4x | 33.0x | -157.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 10.7x | 21.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 8.1x | 8.1x | 8.0x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.05B | 26.2x | 316.1x | 11.3x | |
| $2.06B | 13.7x | 8.0x | 2.8x | |
| $1.83B | 29.4x | 10.7x | 2.7x | |
| $1.90B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.1x | |
| $1.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $1.58B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 111.6x | |
| $730.18B | 62.5x | 45.6x | 14.9x |