Complete PATH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
PATH DCF Analysis
PATH (UiPath Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 23.6% | 9.3% | 19.2% | 17.3% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 12.6% |
| EBIT | $-348.3M | $-164.7M | $-162.6M | $85.2M | $99.9M | $115.5M | $131.6M | $148.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -32.9% | -12.6% | -11.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-261.2M | $-123.5M | $-121.9M | $63.9M | $74.9M | $86.6M | $98.7M | $111.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -24.7% | -9.4% | -8.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $23.8M | $7.3M | $14.9M | $19.9M | $22.2M | $24.4M | $26.4M | $29.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $30.4M | $22.6M | $17.2M | $33.0M | $38.7M | $44.7M | $50.9M | $57.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-31.8M | $150.8M | $-329.1M | $-25.6M | $-24.1M | $-22.2M | $-20.3M | $-18.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -3.0% | 11.5% | -23.0% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-222.8M | $-259.1M | $209.5M | $102.6M | $115.5M | $129.2M | $143.6M | $157.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -16.3% | 180.9% | -51.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -21.0% | -19.8% | 14.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.843 | 0.774 | 0.711 | 0.653 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $94.2M | $97.4M | $100.0M | $102.1M | $102.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $94.2M | $191.6M | $291.6M | $393.7M | $496.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.06 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.9% |
| Total Debt | $77.8M |
| Market Cap | $7.0B |
| Total Capital | $7.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.9% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $157.1M |
| Terminal Value | $2.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $496.4M |
| Net Debt | $-801.4M |
| Equity Value | $2.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 559.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $13 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -60.1% |
Valuation Summary
$5.26
Implied Price
$13.19
Current Price
-60.1%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC
PATH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-3.76
-128.5%
Peer Median: 28.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$22.12
+67.7%
Peer Median: 8.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PATH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PATH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -99.4x | 28.3x | 30.0x | -450.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.1x | 20.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.9x | 8.3x | 8.8x | -40.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18.02B | 28.2x | 15.2x | 4.6x | |
| $8.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.6x | |
| $8.23B | 110.7x | 88.1x | 8.3x | |
| $7.15B | 27.5x | 19.6x | 5.6x | |
| $6.97B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.5x | |
| $7.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $5.76B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.0x | |
| $5.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
| $5.08B | 28.3x | 23.1x | 8.2x | |
| $4.94B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.0x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |