Complete OS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
OS DCF Analysis
OS (OneStream, Inc. Class A Common Stock) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $279.3M | $374.9M | $489.4M | $611.8M | $764.7M | $955.9M | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 34.2% | 30.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.2% | 20.8% |
| EBIT | $-59.3M | $-30.5M | $-319.5M | $30.6M | $38.2M | $47.8M | $58.9M | $71.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -21.2% | -8.1% | -65.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-44.5M | $-22.9M | $-239.6M | $22.9M | $28.7M | $35.8M | $44.1M | $53.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -15.9% | -6.1% | -49.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $5.0M | $2.6M | $2.6M | $6.1M | $7.6M | $9.6M | $11.8M | $14.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $2.7M | $2.9M | $3.7M | $5.1M | $6.3M | $7.9M | $9.7M | $11.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $-22.9M | $371.3M | $-18.7M | $-18.7M | $-18.7M | $-18.4M | $-17.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | -6.1% | 75.9% | -3.1% | -2.4% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-46.8M | $310.0K | $-609.9M | $40.5M | $46.0M | $52.9M | $60.5M | $68.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 100.7% | -196852.6% | 106.6% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 13.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -16.7% | 0.1% | -124.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.858 | 0.736 | 0.632 | 0.542 | 0.465 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $34.8M | $33.9M | $33.4M | $32.8M | $31.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $34.8M | $68.7M | $102.1M | $134.9M | $166.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.82 |
| Cost of Equity | 16.6% |
| Total Debt | $18.6M |
| Market Cap | $7.0B |
| Total Capital | $7.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 16.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $68.7M |
| Terminal Value | $501.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $233.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $166.8M |
| Net Debt | $-525.6M |
| Equity Value | $925.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 173.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $29 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -81.7% |
Valuation Summary
$5.33
Implied Price
$29.11
Current Price
-81.7%
Upside/Downside
16.5%
WACC
OS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-38.16
-231.1%
Peer Median: 28.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$17.79
-38.9%
Peer Median: 8.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -21.6x | 28.3x | 30.0x | -176.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.1x | 20.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 13.5x | 8.3x | 8.5x | 63.6% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19.19B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.6x | |
| $18.02B | 28.2x | 15.2x | 4.6x | |
| $8.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.6x | |
| $8.23B | 110.7x | 88.1x | 8.3x | |
| $7.15B | 27.5x | 19.6x | 5.6x | |
| $6.97B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.5x | |
| $7.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $5.76B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.0x | |
| $5.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
| $5.08B | 28.3x | 23.1x | 8.2x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |