Complete FROG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
FROG DCF Analysis
FROG (JFrog Ltd.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $280.0M | $349.9M | $428.5M | $535.6M | $667.1M | $814.4M | $976.3M | $1.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 24.9% | 22.5% | 25.0% | 24.5% | 22.1% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| EBIT | $-89.8M | $-75.5M | $-91.1M | $26.8M | $33.4M | $40.7M | $48.8M | $57.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -32.1% | -21.6% | -21.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-67.4M | $-56.7M | $-68.3M | $20.1M | $25.0M | $30.5M | $36.6M | $43.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -24.1% | -16.2% | -15.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $4.6M | $2.0M | $3.1M | $8.2M | $9.7M | $11.2M | $12.8M | $14.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Depreciation | $14.7M | $15.3M | $21.5M | $26.1M | $32.5M | $39.7M | $47.6M | $56.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.3M | $61.2M | $-51.9M | $-1.3M | $-1.2M | $-1.2M | $-1.2M | $-1.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.5% | 17.5% | -12.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-56.0M | $-104.5M | $1.9M | $39.3M | $49.1M | $60.2M | $72.6M | $86.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -86.5% | 101.8% | 1958.4% | 25.0% | 22.7% | 20.5% | 18.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -20.0% | -29.9% | 0.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.842 | 0.773 | 0.709 | 0.650 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $36.0M | $41.3M | $46.5M | $51.5M | $56.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $36.0M | $77.4M | $123.9M | $175.3M | $231.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.07 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| Total Debt | $14.0M |
| Market Cap | $4.9B |
| Total Capital | $5.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 9.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $86.0M |
| Terminal Value | $1.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $885.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $231.3M |
| Net Debt | $-35.9M |
| Equity Value | $1.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 109.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $43 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -75.6% |
Valuation Summary
$10.51
Implied Price
$43.09
Current Price
-75.6%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC
FROG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-25.14
-158.3%
Peer Median: 36.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$32.12
-25.5%
Peer Median: 8.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FROG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FROG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -61.9x | 36.1x | 38.2x | -271.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.1x | 21.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 11.0x | 8.2x | 7.9x | 34.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6.97B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.5x | |
| $7.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $5.76B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.0x | |
| $5.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
| $5.08B | 28.3x | 23.1x | 8.2x | |
| $4.94B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.0x | |
| $3.98B | 0.0x | 163.2x | 4.3x | |
| $2.73B | 50.3x | 17.4x | 3.4x | |
| $2.36B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.7x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |