Complete TENB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TENB DCF Analysis
TENB (Tenable Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $683.2M | $798.7M | $900.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 16.9% | 12.7% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 11.6% |
| EBIT | $-67.8M | $-52.2M | $-6.9M | $53.0M | $61.4M | $70.2M | $79.2M | $88.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -9.9% | -6.5% | -0.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-50.9M | $-39.1M | $-5.1M | $39.7M | $46.0M | $52.6M | $59.4M | $66.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -7.4% | -4.9% | -0.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $19.1M | $8.8M | $4.2M | $21.6M | $23.8M | $25.8M | $27.7M | $29.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Depreciation | $22.2M | $27.1M | $33.2M | $36.5M | $42.3M | $48.3M | $54.6M | $60.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Change in NWC | $7.5M | $-143.4M | $73.0M | $32.5M | $30.1M | $27.6M | $24.9M | $22.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1.1% | -18.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-55.3M | $122.6M | $-49.2M | $22.1M | $34.4M | $47.6M | $61.4M | $75.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 321.8% | -140.1% | 145.0% | 55.6% | 38.3% | 29.0% | 23.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -8.1% | 15.4% | -5.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.930 | 0.865 | 0.804 | 0.748 | 0.696 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $20.6M | $29.8M | $38.3M | $46.0M | $52.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $20.6M | $50.4M | $88.7M | $134.6M | $187.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.80 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.8% |
| Total Debt | $419.7M |
| Market Cap | $4.0B |
| Total Capital | $4.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 9.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 90.5% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $75.7M |
| Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $187.3M |
| Net Debt | $91.1M |
| Equity Value | $1.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 118.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $10 |
| Current Share Price | $33 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -69.9% |
Valuation Summary
$9.86
Implied Price
$32.71
Current Price
-69.9%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC
TENB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-13.62
-141.6%
Peer Median: 36.5x
EV/EBITDA
$4.76
-85.5%
Peer Median: 23.3x
P/S Ratio
$53.58
+63.8%
Peer Median: 7.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TENB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TENB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -87.6x | 36.5x | 32.8x | -340.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 164.0x | 23.3x | 17.9x | 603.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.3x | 7.1x | 6.7x | -38.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $5.82B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.1x | |
| $5.60B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
| $5.12B | 28.6x | 23.3x | 8.2x | |
| $4.92B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.9x | |
| $4.00B | 0.0x | 164.0x | 4.3x | |
| $2.73B | 50.3x | 17.4x | 3.4x | |
| $2.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.8x | |
| $2.13B | 15.7x | 7.2x | 1.3x | |
| $3510.28B | 36.5x | 23.7x | 13.0x |