Complete VRNS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
VRNS DCF Analysis
VRNS (Varonis Systems, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $473.6M | $499.2M | $551.0M | $624.6M | $699.9M | $775.7M | $851.3M | $926.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.4% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| EBIT | $-121.2M | $-117.2M | $-117.7M | $31.2M | $35.0M | $38.8M | $42.6M | $46.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -25.6% | -23.5% | -21.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-90.9M | $-87.9M | $-88.2M | $23.4M | $26.2M | $29.1M | $31.9M | $34.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -19.2% | -17.6% | -16.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $11.4M | $5.1M | $6.7M | $13.5M | $14.3M | $15.1M | $15.7M | $16.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Depreciation | $12.2M | $11.7M | $-1.6M | $9.6M | $10.8M | $12.0M | $13.1M | $14.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.6% | 2.3% | -0.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-70.5M | $-216.5M | $-326.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -14.9% | -43.4% | -59.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-19.6M | $135.2M | $229.8M | $19.6M | $22.7M | $26.0M | $29.3M | $32.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 789.2% | 70.0% | -91.5% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 11.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -4.1% | 27.1% | 41.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.932 | 0.869 | 0.810 | 0.755 | 0.704 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $18.3M | $19.7M | $21.0M | $22.1M | $23.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $18.3M | $38.0M | $59.0M | $81.2M | $104.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.76 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.6% |
| Total Debt | $754.4M |
| Market Cap | $5.6B |
| Total Capital | $6.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 11.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 88.2% |
| WACC | 7.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $32.7M |
| Terminal Value | $704.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $496.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $104.2M |
| Net Debt | $568.8M |
| Equity Value | $31.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 111.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $0 |
| Current Share Price | $50 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -99.4% |
Valuation Summary
$0.28
Implied Price
$50.17
Current Price
-99.4%
Upside/Downside
7.3%
WACC
VRNS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-22.91
-145.7%
Peer Median: 28.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$42.36
-15.6%
Peer Median: 8.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for VRNS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | VRNS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -62.1x | 28.3x | 30.6x | -319.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.1x | 22.1x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 9.8x | 8.3x | 8.5x | 18.4% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8.23B | 110.7x | 88.1x | 8.3x | |
| $7.15B | 27.5x | 19.6x | 5.6x | |
| $6.97B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 13.5x | |
| $7.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $5.76B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.0x | |
| $5.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
| $5.08B | 28.3x | 23.1x | 8.2x | |
| $4.94B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.0x | |
| $3.98B | 0.0x | 163.2x | 4.3x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |