Complete APPN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
APPN DCF Analysis
APPN (Appian Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $468.0M | $545.4M | $617.0M | $726.2M | $841.7M | $962.3M | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 16.5% | 13.1% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 11.6% |
| EBIT | $-145.0M | $-108.0M | $-60.9M | $36.3M | $42.1M | $48.1M | $54.3M | $60.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -31.0% | -19.8% | -9.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-108.8M | $-81.0M | $-45.6M | $27.2M | $31.6M | $36.1M | $40.7M | $45.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -23.2% | -14.8% | -7.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $9.1M | $9.6M | $3.8M | $9.3M | $10.2M | $11.1M | $11.9M | $12.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $7.3M | $9.5M | $10.0M | $11.9M | $13.8M | $15.8M | $17.8M | $19.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Change in NWC | $29.7M | $-109.1M | $37.6M | $30.1M | $27.9M | $25.5M | $23.1M | $20.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 6.3% | -20.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-140.3M | $27.9M | $-77.0M | $-231.8K | $7.2M | $15.3M | $23.6M | $32.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 119.9% | -375.8% | 99.7% | 3227.3% | 110.4% | 54.8% | 36.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -30.0% | 5.1% | -12.5% | -0.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.897 | 0.805 | 0.722 | 0.647 | 0.581 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-207.9K | $5.8M | $11.0M | $15.3M | $18.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-207.9K | $5.6M | $16.6M | $31.9M | $50.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.84 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.4% |
| Total Debt | $315.0M |
| Market Cap | $2.4B |
| Total Capital | $2.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 11.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 88.3% |
| WACC | 11.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $32.2M |
| Terminal Value | $367.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $213.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $50.6M |
| Net Debt | $196.4M |
| Equity Value | $67.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 73.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $32 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -97.1% |
Valuation Summary
$0.92
Implied Price
$31.96
Current Price
-97.1%
Upside/Downside
11.5%
WACC
APPN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-40.75
-227.5%
Peer Median: 49.9x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.3x
P/S Ratio
$31.96
+0.0%
Peer Median: 3.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for APPN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | APPN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -39.1x | 49.9x | 47.1x | -178.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.3x | 20.1x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.7x | 3.7x | 5.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.18B | 28.9x | 23.6x | 8.3x | |
| $4.92B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.9x | |
| $4.01B | 0.0x | 164.5x | 4.3x | |
| $2.71B | 49.9x | 17.3x | 3.4x | |
| $2.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.7x | |
| $2.12B | 15.7x | 7.2x | 1.2x | |
| $1.51B | 92.2x | 18.4x | 3.2x | |
| $1.52B | 60.1x | 31.0x | 1.8x | |
| $3444.39B | 35.8x | 23.3x | 12.8x |