Complete FOUR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
FOUR DCF Analysis
FOUR (Shift4 Payments, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.2B | $5.2B | $6.5B | $8.1B | $10.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 28.7% | 29.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.6% |
| EBIT | $58.1M | $114.8M | $247.0M | $208.2M | $262.0M | $334.1M | $425.7M | $540.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 2.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.2% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| NOPAT | $58.0M | $114.8M | $185.3M | $176.8M | $220.0M | $277.2M | $348.9M | $437.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Capex | $380.0M | $137.6M | $189.7M | $338.6M | $402.1M | $477.5M | $567.0M | $671.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 19.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% |
| Depreciation | $149.1M | $214.6M | $296.6M | $343.5M | $429.4M | $536.7M | $670.9M | $836.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-546.4M | $-274.5M | $81.7M | $51.1M | $51.1M | $51.1M | $51.1M | $50.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -27.4% | -10.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $373.5M | $466.3M | $210.4M | $130.7M | $196.2M | $285.3M | $401.8M | $551.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 24.9% | -54.9% | -37.9% | 50.2% | 45.4% | 40.8% | 37.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 18.7% | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.908 | 0.825 | 0.750 | 0.681 | 0.619 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $118.7M | $161.9M | $213.9M | $273.6M | $341.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $118.7M | $280.6M | $494.5M | $768.1M | $1.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 15.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.82 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.3% |
| Total Debt | $2.9B |
| Market Cap | $6.4B |
| Total Capital | $9.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 30.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 69.1% |
| WACC | 10.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $551.7M |
| Terminal Value | $7.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $4.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.1B |
| Net Debt | $1.7B |
| Equity Value | $4.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 91.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $44 |
| Current Share Price | $96 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -53.7% |
Valuation Summary
$44.27
Implied Price
$95.58
Current Price
-53.7%
Upside/Downside
10.1%
WACC
FOUR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$73.83
-22.8%
Peer Median: 30.7x
EV/EBITDA
$64.72
-32.3%
Peer Median: 13.7x
P/S Ratio
$238.09
+149.1%
Peer Median: 4.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FOUR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FOUR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.7x | 30.7x | 34.4x | 29.5% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.4x | 13.7x | 15.2x | 85.9% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.9x | 4.6x | 5.0x | -59.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.16B | 159.4x | 139.4x | 4.6x | |
| $23.01B | 23.0x | 13.7x | 5.7x | |
| $18.48B | 12.0x | 7.2x | 1.8x | |
| $17.67B | 0.0x | 76.5x | 5.9x | |
| $13.13B | 30.7x | 17.2x | 5.7x | |
| $6.45B | 39.7x | 24.5x | 1.9x | |
| $4.67B | 15.7x | 7.3x | 1.2x | |
| $4.69B | 17.1x | 8.6x | 1.8x | |
| $4.77B | 96.8x | 55.6x | 5.0x | |
| $4.30B | 0.0x | 186.7x | 3.2x | |
| $709.23B | 40.5x | 27.8x | 18.9x |
FOUR Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.41 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $8.81 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$21.85
Intrinsic Value
$95.58
Current Price
-77.1%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.41 = 54.16
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
54.16 × 8.81 = 477.36
Step 3: Take square root
√477.36 = 21.85
Graham Number Result:
$21.85
FOUR Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.41 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.41
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$58.98
Intrinsic Value
$95.58
Current Price
-38.3%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
FOUR Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.41
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.41 × 10.0% = $24.07
$24.07
Fair Value
$95.58
Current Price
-74.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
39.7x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
3.97
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
FOUR Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$32.15
EPV per Share
$95.58
Current Price
-66.4%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC: 7.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $32.15 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 75.2% |
| Debt Weight | 24.8% |
| WACC | 7.8% |