Complete AFRM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AFRM DCF Analysis
AFRM (Affirm Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.3B | $2.9B | $3.6B | $4.5B | $5.7B | $7.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 17.7% | 46.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-796.4M | $-1.2B | $-615.8M | $145.2M | $181.5M | $226.9M | $283.6M | $354.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -59.0% | -75.6% | -26.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-597.3M | $-900.6M | $-461.9M | $108.9M | $136.1M | $170.1M | $212.7M | $265.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -44.3% | -56.7% | -19.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $111.7M | $120.8M | $159.3M | $169.5M | $201.3M | $239.1M | $283.9M | $337.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| Depreciation | $52.7M | $134.6M | $169.0M | $190.3M | $237.9M | $297.4M | $371.7M | $464.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Change in NWC | $2.0B | $1.4B | $-4.4B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 149.9% | 85.6% | -188.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-2.7B | $-2.2B | $3.9B | $129.7M | $172.7M | $228.4M | $300.5M | $393.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 16.1% | 274.2% | -96.7% | 33.2% | 32.3% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -198.5% | -141.5% | 168.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.865 | 0.748 | 0.646 | 0.559 | 0.483 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $112.1M | $129.1M | $147.7M | $167.9M | $190.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $112.1M | $241.2M | $388.9M | $556.8M | $746.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.41% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.66 |
| Cost of Equity | 20.3% |
| Total Debt | $6.6B |
| Market Cap | $17.1B |
| Total Capital | $23.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 27.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 72.2% |
| WACC | 15.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $393.4M |
| Terminal Value | $3.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $746.9M |
| Net Debt | $5.6B |
| Equity Value | $-3.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 309.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $-11 |
| Current Share Price | $53 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -120.5% |
Valuation Summary
$-10.89
Implied Price
$53.16
Current Price
-120.5%
Upside/Downside
15.7%
WACC
AFRM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-4.09
-107.7%
Peer Median: 22.6x
EV/EBITDA
$14.26
-73.2%
Peer Median: 15.1x
P/S Ratio
$37.86
-28.8%
Peer Median: 4.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AFRM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AFRM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -294.2x | 22.6x | 27.0x | -1399.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 74.8x | 15.1x | 15.6x | 394.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 5.7x | 4.1x | 4.8x | 40.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41.39B | 50.7x | 15.1x | 4.1x | |
| $38.03B | 15.0x | 19.6x | 1.6x | |
| $24.89B | 164.2x | 143.8x | 4.8x | |
| $22.69B | 22.6x | 13.5x | 5.6x | |
| $18.26B | 11.8x | 7.1x | 1.8x | |
| $17.15B | 0.0x | 74.8x | 5.7x | |
| $13.13B | 30.7x | 17.2x | 5.7x | |
| $6.44B | 39.7x | 24.5x | 1.9x | |
| $4.67B | 15.6x | 7.3x | 1.2x | |
| $4.51B | 16.5x | 8.4x | 1.7x | |
| $707.33B | 40.4x | 27.7x | 18.8x |