Complete TOST Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
TOST DCF Analysis
TOST (Toast, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B | $3.9B | $5.0B | $6.2B | $7.8B | $9.7B | $12.1B | $15.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 41.5% | 28.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-384.0M | $-287.0M | $16.0M | $310.0M | $387.5M | $484.4M | $605.5M | $756.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -14.1% | -7.4% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 13.6% | 22.7% | 23.0% | 23.2% | 23.4% | 23.6% |
| NOPAT | $-288.0M | $-215.3M | $13.8M | $239.5M | $298.6M | $372.1M | $463.7M | $577.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -10.5% | -5.6% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $33.0M | $42.0M | $54.0M | $110.1M | $130.8M | $155.3M | $184.4M | $219.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Depreciation | $24.0M | $32.0M | $46.0M | $54.4M | $68.0M | $85.1M | $106.3M | $132.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-222.0M | $-4.0M | $257.0M | $-47.3M | $-47.3M | $-47.3M | $-47.3M | $-47.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -8.1% | -0.1% | 5.2% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-75.0M | $-221.3M | $-251.2M | $231.2M | $283.1M | $349.2M | $433.0M | $539.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -195.0% | -13.5% | 192.0% | 22.5% | 23.3% | 24.0% | 24.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.7% | -5.7% | -5.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.885 | 0.782 | 0.692 | 0.612 | 0.541 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $204.5M | $221.5M | $241.6M | $265.0M | $291.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $204.5M | $426.0M | $667.6M | $932.6M | $1.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 22.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.99 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.1% |
| Total Debt | $24.0M |
| Market Cap | $24.2B |
| Total Capital | $24.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.9% |
| WACC | 13.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $539.2M |
| Terminal Value | $5.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.8B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.2B |
| Net Debt | $-879.0M |
| Equity Value | $4.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 591.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $8 |
| Current Share Price | $42 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -80.0% |
Valuation Summary
$8.36
Implied Price
$41.77
Current Price
-80.0%
Upside/Downside
13.1%
WACC
TOST Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$7.36
-82.4%
Peer Median: 28.1x
EV/EBITDA
$4.42
-89.4%
Peer Median: 15.3x
P/S Ratio
$41.77
+0.0%
Peer Median: 4.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TOST's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TOST Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 159.4x | 28.1x | 28.6x | 467.6% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 139.4x | 15.3x | 17.2x | 810.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.6x | 4.6x | 6.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $523.99B | 40.4x | 30.7x | 18.0x | |
| $89.53B | 28.1x | 12.6x | 4.3x | |
| $69.28B | 15.7x | 10.3x | 2.2x | |
| $42.05B | 51.5x | 15.3x | 4.1x | |
| $39.03B | 15.4x | 20.2x | 1.6x | |
| $24.16B | 159.4x | 139.4x | 4.6x | |
| $23.01B | 23.0x | 13.7x | 5.7x | |
| $18.48B | 12.0x | 7.2x | 1.8x | |
| $17.67B | 0.0x | 76.5x | 5.9x | |
| $13.13B | 30.7x | 17.2x | 5.7x | |
| $709.23B | 40.5x | 27.8x | 18.9x |
TOST Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.26 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $2.61 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$3.93
Intrinsic Value
$41.77
Current Price
-90.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.26 = 5.90
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
5.90 × 2.61 = 15.41
Step 3: Take square root
√15.41 = 3.93
Graham Number Result:
$3.93
TOST Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.26 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.26
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$6.42
Intrinsic Value
$41.77
Current Price
-84.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
TOST Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.26
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.26 × 10.0% = $2.62
$2.62
Fair Value
$41.77
Current Price
-93.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
159.4x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
15.94
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).