Complete CPAY Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
CPAY DCF Analysis
CPAY (Corpay, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $3.8B | $4.0B | $4.4B | $4.9B | $5.3B | $5.7B | $6.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 9.6% | 5.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% |
| EBIT | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B |
| EBIT Margin % | 42.2% | 44.1% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.2% | 25.9% | 27.5% | 24.6% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.8% |
| NOPAT | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 31.6% | 32.7% | 32.6% | 30.2% | 30.1% | 30.1% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| Capex | $151.4M | $153.8M | $175.2M | $178.1M | $186.3M | $193.1M | $198.5M | $202.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Depreciation | $322.3M | $336.6M | $351.1M | $400.8M | $441.4M | $481.7M | $521.2M | $559.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-135.0M | $195.8M | $-290.5M | $12.0M | $10.6M | $9.3M | $8.0M | $6.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -3.9% | 5.2% | -7.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -12.5% | 45.0% | -12.4% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 40.5% | 32.3% | 44.3% | 34.9% | 35.2% | 35.4% | 35.6% | 35.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.699 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.4B | $2.9B | $4.4B | $6.0B | $7.5B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 24.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.98 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | $8.0B |
| Market Cap | $23.0B |
| Total Capital | $31.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 25.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 74.2% |
| WACC | 7.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.2B |
| Terminal Value | $46.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $32.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $7.5B |
| Net Debt | $6.4B |
| Equity Value | $33.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $463 |
| Current Share Price | $326 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +41.7% |
Valuation Summary
$462.60
Implied Price
$326.43
Current Price
+41.7%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC
CPAY Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$399.21
+22.3%
Peer Median: 28.1x
EV/EBITDA
$468.01
+43.4%
Peer Median: 15.3x
P/S Ratio
$248.14
-24.0%
Peer Median: 4.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CPAY's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CPAY Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.0x | 28.1x | 28.5x | -18.2% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7x | 15.3x | 16.5x | -10.7% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 5.7x | 4.3x | 5.1x | 31.5% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89.53B | 28.1x | 12.6x | 4.3x | |
| $69.28B | 15.7x | 10.3x | 2.2x | |
| $42.05B | 51.5x | 15.3x | 4.1x | |
| $39.03B | 15.4x | 20.2x | 1.6x | |
| $24.16B | 159.4x | 139.4x | 4.6x | |
| $23.01B | 23.0x | 13.7x | 5.7x | |
| $18.48B | 12.0x | 7.2x | 1.8x | |
| $17.67B | 0.0x | 76.5x | 5.9x | |
| $13.13B | 30.7x | 17.2x | 5.7x | |
| $6.45B | 39.7x | 24.5x | 1.9x | |
| $709.23B | 40.5x | 27.8x | 18.9x |
CPAY Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $14.22 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $43.46 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$117.90
Intrinsic Value
$326.43
Current Price
-63.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 14.22 = 319.84
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
319.84 × 43.46 = 13899.55
Step 3: Take square root
√13899.55 = 117.90
Graham Number Result:
$117.90
CPAY Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
14.22 × (8.5 + 2 × 11.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$14.22
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y11.7%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y6.6%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$454.41
Intrinsic Value
$326.43
Current Price
+39.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 11.7%
CPAY Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$14.22
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y11.7%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y6.6%
5-year earnings growth
11.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$14.22 × 11.7% = $166.79
$166.79
Fair Value
$326.43
Current Price
-48.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
23.0x
Current P/E
11.7%
Growth Rate
1.96
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
CPAY Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$179.90
EPV per Share
$326.43
Current Price
-44.9%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC: 7.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $12.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $12.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $179.90 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 74.6% |
| Debt Weight | 25.4% |
| WACC | 7.8% |