Complete RELY Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
RELY DCF Analysis
RELY (Remitly Global, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $653.6M | $944.3M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.9B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 44.5% | 33.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-121.0M | $-114.2M | $-39.1M | $79.0M | $98.7M | $123.4M | $154.3M | $192.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -18.5% | -12.1% | -3.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-90.8M | $-85.6M | $-29.3M | $59.2M | $74.1M | $92.6M | $115.7M | $144.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -13.9% | -9.1% | -2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $7.1M | $9.1M | $6.0M | $16.5M | $19.7M | $24.7M | $30.9M | $38.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $6.7M | $13.1M | $18.1M | $20.3M | $25.3M | $31.7M | $39.6M | $49.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-5.7M | $105.0M | $3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M | $-3.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.9% | 11.1% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-85.5M | $-186.6M | $-20.5M | $66.3M | $82.8M | $102.8M | $127.6M | $158.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -118.4% | 89.0% | 423.5% | 25.0% | 24.0% | 24.2% | 24.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -13.1% | -19.8% | -1.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.951 | 0.904 | 0.859 | 0.817 | 0.777 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $63.0M | $74.9M | $88.3M | $104.3M | $123.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $63.0M | $137.9M | $226.2M | $330.4M | $453.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.18 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.2% |
| Total Debt | $16.3M |
| Market Cap | $4.3B |
| Total Capital | $4.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.6% |
| WACC | 5.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $158.7M |
| Terminal Value | $6.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $4.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $453.7M |
| Net Debt | $-351.8M |
| Equity Value | $5.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 194.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $28 |
| Current Share Price | $21 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +33.0% |
Valuation Summary
$28.32
Implied Price
$21.29
Current Price
+33.0%
Upside/Downside
5.2%
WACC
RELY Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-0.82
-103.9%
Peer Median: 39.5x
EV/EBITDA
$1.80
-91.5%
Peer Median: 17.4x
P/S Ratio
$21.29
+0.0%
Peer Median: 3.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RELY's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RELY Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1022.9x | 39.5x | 35.6x | -2689.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 188.5x | 17.4x | 19.8x | 984.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.2x | 3.2x | 5.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.26B | 31.0x | 17.4x | 5.7x | |
| $6.42B | 39.5x | 24.5x | 1.8x | |
| $4.80B | 16.1x | 7.5x | 1.2x | |
| $4.70B | 17.2x | 8.6x | 1.8x | |
| $4.59B | 93.1x | 53.4x | 4.8x | |
| $4.34B | 0.0x | 188.5x | 3.2x | |
| $4.27B | 41.0x | 36.1x | 13.0x | |
| $3.12B | 3.5x | 4.9x | 0.8x | |
| $2.54B | 23.8x | 9.1x | 2.6x | |
| $2.57B | 50.0x | 41.8x | 4.9x | |
| $716.50B | 40.9x | 28.1x | 19.0x |