Complete PAY Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
PAY DCF Analysis
PAY (Paymentus Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $497.0M | $614.5M | $871.7M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 23.6% | 41.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.4% | 21.0% |
| EBIT | $-3.0M | $18.1M | $44.9M | $54.5M | $68.1M | $85.1M | $105.0M | $127.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -0.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 11.2% | 18.1% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 19.4% | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| NOPAT | $-2.2M | $16.1M | $36.7M | $44.7M | $55.4M | $68.6M | $83.9M | $100.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -0.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Capex | $31.3M | $34.3M | $457.0K | $48.0M | $57.0M | $67.6M | $79.3M | $91.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.3% | 5.6% | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Depreciation | $24.1M | $30.6M | $36.5M | $50.9M | $63.6M | $79.5M | $98.1M | $118.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-4.5M | $30.1M | $56.5M | $28.5M | $28.5M | $28.5M | $28.2M | $27.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-4.9M | $-17.7M | $16.2M | $19.1M | $33.5M | $52.0M | $74.6M | $101.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -259.3% | 191.6% | 17.5% | 75.6% | 55.1% | 43.5% | 35.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.0% | -2.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.896 | 0.804 | 0.721 | 0.646 | 0.579 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $17.1M | $26.9M | $37.4M | $48.2M | $58.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $17.1M | $44.0M | $81.4M | $129.6M | $188.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 18.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.65 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.6% |
| Total Debt | $8.4M |
| Market Cap | $4.5B |
| Total Capital | $4.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
| WACC | 11.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $101.0M |
| Terminal Value | $1.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $662.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $188.1M |
| Net Debt | $-201.0M |
| Equity Value | $1.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 127.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $8 |
| Current Share Price | $36 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -77.0% |
Valuation Summary
$8.24
Implied Price
$35.81
Current Price
-77.0%
Upside/Downside
11.5%
WACC
PAY Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$12.13
-66.1%
Peer Median: 30.8x
EV/EBITDA
$11.35
-68.3%
Peer Median: 17.3x
P/S Ratio
$24.11
-32.7%
Peer Median: 3.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PAY's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PAY Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 90.9x | 30.8x | 33.4x | 195.1% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.1x | 17.3x | 16.8x | 201.4% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.7x | 3.1x | 5.4x | 48.5% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.97B | 0.0x | 77.5x | 6.0x | |
| $13.18B | 30.8x | 17.3x | 5.7x | |
| $6.36B | 39.1x | 24.5x | 1.8x | |
| $4.75B | 15.9x | 7.4x | 1.2x | |
| $4.67B | 17.0x | 8.6x | 1.8x | |
| $4.48B | 90.9x | 52.1x | 4.7x | |
| $4.26B | 0.0x | 184.5x | 3.1x | |
| $4.12B | 39.5x | 34.8x | 12.5x | |
| $3.07B | 3.4x | 4.9x | 0.7x | |
| $2.49B | 23.3x | 8.9x | 2.5x | |
| $711.23B | 40.6x | 27.9x | 18.9x |
PAY Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.39 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.80 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$5.81
Intrinsic Value
$35.81
Current Price
-83.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.39 = 8.87
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
8.87 × 3.80 = 33.71
Step 3: Take square root
√33.71 = 5.81
Graham Number Result:
$5.81
PAY Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.39 × (8.5 + 2 × 83.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.39
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y83.4%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y36.3%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$69.04
Intrinsic Value
$35.81
Current Price
+92.8%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 83.4%
PAY Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.39
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y83.4%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y36.3%
5-year earnings growth
83.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.39 × 83.4% = $32.85
$32.85
Fair Value
$35.81
Current Price
-8.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
90.9x
Current P/E
83.4%
Growth Rate
1.09
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
PAY Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$3.78
EPV per Share
$35.81
Current Price
-89.4%
Upside/Downside
9.2%
WACC: 9.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $3.78 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.8% |
| Debt Weight | 0.2% |
| WACC | 9.2% |