Complete APLD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
APLD DCF Analysis
APLD (Applied Digital Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.5M | $55.4M | $165.6M | $207.0M | $258.7M | $323.4M | $404.2M | $505.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 547.9% | 198.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-20.9M | $-44.1M | $-99.0M | $10.3M | $12.9M | $16.2M | $20.2M | $25.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -244.4% | -79.5% | -59.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-15.7M | $-33.0M | $-74.3M | $7.8M | $9.7M | $12.1M | $15.2M | $18.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -183.3% | -59.6% | -44.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $58.3M | $131.3M | $141.8M | $6.2M | $7.8M | $9.7M | $12.1M | $15.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 681.4% | 237.0% | 85.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $1.1M | $7.3M | $79.4M | $51.2M | $63.9M | $79.9M | $99.9M | $124.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 13.1% | 13.1% | 47.9% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% |
| Change in NWC | $11.1M | $-90.0M | $-285.6M | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.2M | $4.0M | $5.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 129.4% | -162.5% | -172.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-83.9M | $-67.0M | $148.9M | $50.6M | $63.3M | $79.1M | $98.9M | $123.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 20.1% | 322.1% | -66.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -981.0% | -121.0% | 89.9% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.795 | 0.632 | 0.503 | 0.400 | 0.318 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $40.3M | $40.0M | $39.8M | $39.5M | $39.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $40.3M | $80.3M | $120.1M | $159.6M | $198.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.38% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 5.87 |
| Cost of Equity | 29.8% |
| Total Debt | $427.8M |
| Market Cap | $2.3B |
| Total Capital | $2.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 15.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 84.1% |
| WACC | 25.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $123.6M |
| Terminal Value | $544.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $173.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $198.9M |
| Net Debt | $424.5M |
| Equity Value | $-52.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 114.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $-0 |
| Current Share Price | $10 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -104.6% |
Valuation Summary
$-0.46
Implied Price
$10.03
Current Price
-104.6%
Upside/Downside
25.8%
WACC
APLD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-28.97
-388.8%
Peer Median: 26.5x
EV/EBITDA
$1.20
-88.0%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$3.12
-68.9%
Peer Median: 3.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for APLD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | APLD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -9.2x | 26.5x | 26.1x | -134.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 145.5x | 14.6x | 13.4x | 894.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 10.2x | 3.2x | 4.7x | 221.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19.61B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
| $11.27B | 25.7x | 12.1x | 2.8x | |
| $2.56B | 26.5x | 14.6x | 3.2x | |
| $2.26B | 0.0x | 115.6x | 10.2x | |
| $0.99B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $1.34B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.4x | |
| $0.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.28B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.1x | |
| $74.82B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.6x |