Complete MDB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
MDB DCF Analysis
MDB (MongoDB, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.9B | $4.8B | $5.8B |
Revenue Growth % | - | 31.1% | 19.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 22.7% | 20.5% |
EBIT | $-346.7M | $-233.7M | $-216.1M | $125.4M | $156.8M | $195.9M | $240.5M | $289.7M |
EBIT Margin % | -27.0% | -13.9% | -10.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
NOPAT | $-260.0M | $-175.3M | $-162.0M | $94.1M | $117.6M | $147.0M | $180.4M | $217.3M |
NOPAT Margin % | -20.2% | -10.4% | -8.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
Capex | $7.2M | $6.1M | $0 | $25.1M | $31.4M | $39.2M | $48.1M | $57.9M |
Capex / Revenue % | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
Depreciation | $29.2M | $32.1M | $15.7M | $41.5M | $51.9M | $64.9M | $79.6M | $95.9M |
D&A / Revenue % | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
Change in NWC | $57.4M | $271.3M | $442.1M | $56.1M | $56.1M | $56.1M | $55.1M | $53.1M |
NWC Change / Revenue % | 4.5% | 16.1% | 22.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
Unlevered FCF | $-295.5M | $-420.6M | $-588.4M | $54.4M | $82.0M | $116.6M | $156.8M | $202.2M |
UFCF % Chg. | - | -42.4% | -39.9% | 109.2% | 50.8% | 42.1% | 34.6% | 28.9% |
FCF / Revenue % | -23.0% | -25.0% | -29.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% |
Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.905 | 0.820 | 0.742 | 0.672 | 0.608 |
Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $49.3M | $67.2M | $86.5M | $105.4M | $123.0M |
Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $49.3M | $116.5M | $203.0M | $308.4M | $431.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
WACC Calculation | Value |
---|---|
Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
Tax Rate | 25.0% |
After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.6% |
Risk Free Rate | 4.34% |
Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
Beta | 1.42 |
Cost of Equity | 10.5% |
Total Debt | $36.5M |
Market Cap | $19.8B |
Total Capital | $19.9B |
Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
WACC | 10.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
---|---|
Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
Final Year FCF | $202.2M |
Terminal Value | $2.6B |
PV of Terminal Value | $1.6B |
Cumulative PV of UFCF | $431.4M |
Net Debt | $-453.6M |
Equity Value | $2.5B |
Shares Outstanding | 74.6M |
Implied Share Price | $33 |
Current Share Price | $243 |
Implied Upside/(Downside) | -86.3% |
Valuation Summary
$33.13
Implied Price
$242.51
Current Price
-86.3%
Upside/Downside
10.5%
WACC
MDB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-48.49
-120.1%
Peer Median: 31.8x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.5x
P/S Ratio
$124.15
-48.5%
Peer Median: 5.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MDB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
Multiple | MDB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
P/E Ratio | -158.1x | 31.8x | 29.3x | -597.5% | Undervalued |
EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.5x | 20.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
P/S Ratio | 9.8x | 5.1x | 6.8x | 94.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
$70.26B | 0.0x | 808.5x | 39.7x | |
$23.55B | 31.8x | 31.4x | 5.1x | |
$25.13B | 32.2x | 23.5x | 16.0x | |
$16.72B | 626.1x | 278.4x | 6.4x | |
$19.98B | 0.0x | 94.6x | 4.4x | |
$19.71B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.8x | |
$11.55B | 26.4x | 12.4x | 2.9x | |
$2.57B | 26.6x | 14.7x | 3.2x | |
$73.67B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.3x |