Complete BLZE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BLZE DCF Analysis
BLZE (Backblaze, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.2M | $102.0M | $127.6M | $158.0M | $191.8M | $228.7M | $268.3M | $310.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 19.8% | 25.1% | 23.8% | 21.4% | 19.3% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| EBIT | $-48.4M | $-57.9M | $-46.3M | $7.9M | $9.6M | $11.4M | $13.4M | $15.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -56.9% | -56.8% | -36.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-36.3M | $-43.4M | $-34.7M | $5.9M | $7.2M | $8.6M | $10.1M | $11.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -42.6% | -42.6% | -27.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $16.0M | $5.5M | $1.7M | $16.2M | $18.7M | $21.2M | $23.6M | $26.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 18.8% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| Depreciation | $20.2M | $24.9M | $28.3M | $37.0M | $44.9M | $53.6M | $62.8M | $72.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 23.7% | 24.4% | 22.2% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-48.1M | $-36.5M | $24.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -56.5% | -35.8% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $15.9M | $12.5M | $-32.6M | $26.7M | $33.4M | $40.9M | $49.3M | $58.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -21.7% | -361.4% | 181.9% | 25.1% | 22.6% | 20.4% | 18.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 18.7% | 12.2% | -25.6% | 16.9% | 17.4% | 17.9% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.920 | 0.846 | 0.778 | 0.716 | 0.658 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $24.6M | $28.3M | $31.9M | $35.3M | $38.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $24.6M | $52.8M | $84.7M | $120.0M | $158.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.15 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.3% |
| Total Debt | $46.3M |
| Market Cap | $267.6M |
| Total Capital | $314.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 14.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 85.2% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $58.3M |
| Terminal Value | $961.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $633.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $158.4M |
| Net Debt | $563.0K |
| Equity Value | $791.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $18 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +272.7% |
Valuation Summary
$18.17
Implied Price
$4.88
Current Price
+272.7%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC
BLZE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-59.49
-1320.3%
Peer Median: 68.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.4x
P/S Ratio
$5.96
+22.3%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BLZE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BLZE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -5.6x | 68.7x | 46.5x | -108.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.4x | 26.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.0x | 2.5x | 5.6x | -18.2% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.35B | 24.4x | 13.9x | 2.9x | |
| $3.22B | 0.0x | 115.6x | 14.6x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $1.34B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.4x | |
| $0.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.0x | |
| $0.28B | 0.0x | 42.8x | 0.1x | |
| $0.15B | 68.7x | 23.4x | 2.5x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 23.7x | |
| $67.95B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 18.7x |