Complete BASE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BASE DCF Analysis
BASE (Couchbase, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $154.8M | $180.0M | $209.5M | $248.1M | $289.3M | $332.5M | $377.3M | $422.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 16.3% | 16.3% | 18.4% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 12.1% |
| EBIT | $-67.7M | $-84.5M | $-78.7M | $12.4M | $14.5M | $16.6M | $18.9M | $21.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -43.7% | -47.0% | -37.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-50.7M | $-63.4M | $-59.0M | $9.3M | $10.8M | $12.5M | $14.1M | $15.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -32.8% | -35.2% | -28.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $5.6M | $4.7M | $3.0M | $5.5M | $6.1M | $6.7M | $7.2M | $7.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Depreciation | $3.2M | $2.4M | $2.3M | $3.7M | $4.3M | $5.0M | $5.6M | $6.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-38.2M | $-22.7M | $-10.7M | $-6.3M | $-5.9M | $-5.4M | $-4.9M | $-4.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -24.6% | -12.6% | -5.1% | -2.6% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-15.1M | $-42.9M | $-49.0M | $13.9M | $15.0M | $16.2M | $17.5M | $19.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -185.3% | -14.1% | 128.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -9.7% | -23.9% | -23.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.923 | 0.851 | 0.785 | 0.724 | 0.668 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $12.8M | $12.8M | $12.7M | $12.7M | $12.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $12.8M | $25.5M | $38.3M | $51.0M | $63.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.93 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.4% |
| Total Debt | $4.3M |
| Market Cap | $1.3B |
| Total Capital | $1.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $19.0M |
| Terminal Value | $329.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $220.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $63.7M |
| Net Debt | $-26.2M |
| Equity Value | $310.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 51.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $24 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -75.1% |
Valuation Summary
$6.04
Implied Price
$24.26
Current Price
-75.1%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC
BASE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-34.49
-242.1%
Peer Median: 24.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 42.8x
P/S Ratio
$11.07
-54.4%
Peer Median: 2.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BASE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BASE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -17.1x | 24.4x | 24.4x | -170.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 42.8x | 28.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 6.4x | 2.9x | 5.9x | 119.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.35B | 24.4x | 13.9x | 2.9x | |
| $3.22B | 0.0x | 115.6x | 14.6x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $1.34B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.4x | |
| $0.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.0x | |
| $0.28B | 0.0x | 42.8x | 0.1x | |
| $67.95B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 18.7x |