Complete SNOW Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SNOW DCF Analysis
SNOW (Snowflake Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B | $2.8B | $3.6B | $4.5B | $5.7B | $7.1B | $8.9B | $11.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 35.9% | 29.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-842.3M | $-1.1B | $-1.5B | $226.6M | $283.3M | $354.1M | $442.7M | $553.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -40.8% | -39.0% | -40.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-631.7M | $-821.1M | $-1.1B | $170.0M | $212.5M | $265.6M | $332.0M | $415.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -30.6% | -29.3% | -30.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $49.8M | $98.0M | $46.3M | $179.3M | $212.9M | $252.9M | $300.3M | $356.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Depreciation | $63.5M | $119.9M | $182.5M | $187.1M | $233.8M | $292.3M | $365.4M | $456.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-210.4M | $-683.1M | $260.2M | $162.6M | $162.6M | $162.6M | $162.6M | $162.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -10.2% | -24.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-407.6M | $-116.0M | $-1.2B | $15.1M | $70.8M | $142.4M | $234.5M | $352.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 71.5% | -948.2% | 101.2% | 367.4% | 101.2% | 64.6% | 50.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -19.7% | -4.1% | -33.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.914 | 0.835 | 0.763 | 0.698 | 0.638 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $13.8M | $59.1M | $108.7M | $163.6M | $224.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $13.8M | $73.0M | $181.7M | $345.3M | $570.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.34% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.22 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.6% |
| Total Debt | $2.7B |
| Market Cap | $73.1B |
| Total Capital | $75.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 3.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.5% |
| WACC | 9.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $352.6M |
| Terminal Value | $5.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $570.1M |
| Net Debt | $56.5M |
| Equity Value | $3.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 332.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $12 |
| Current Share Price | $219 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -94.7% |
Valuation Summary
$11.55
Implied Price
$219.06
Current Price
-94.7%
Upside/Downside
9.4%
WACC
SNOW Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-123.06
-156.2%
Peer Median: 31.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.9x
P/S Ratio
$68.53
-68.7%
Peer Median: 6.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SNOW's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SNOW Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -56.5x | 31.7x | 30.3x | -278.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.9x | 22.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 20.2x | 6.3x | 7.4x | 219.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $73.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.2x | |
| $52.28B | 0.0x | 128.2x | 27.3x | |
| $69.69B | 0.0x | 802.1x | 39.4x | |
| $23.51B | 31.7x | 31.4x | 5.0x | |
| $25.62B | 32.9x | 23.9x | 16.3x | |
| $16.46B | 616.3x | 274.2x | 6.3x | |
| $19.82B | 0.0x | 93.9x | 4.3x | |
| $19.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.7x | |
| $11.54B | 26.3x | 12.4x | 2.9x |