Complete BIGC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BIGC DCF Analysis
BIGC (BigCommerce Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $279.1M | $309.4M | $332.9M | $386.6M | $442.7M | $500.5M | $559.3M | $618.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 10.9% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.6% |
| EBIT | $-98.0M | $-72.4M | $-41.7M | $19.3M | $22.1M | $25.0M | $28.0M | $30.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -35.1% | -23.4% | -12.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-73.5M | $-54.3M | $-31.3M | $14.5M | $16.6M | $18.8M | $21.0M | $23.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -26.3% | -17.6% | -9.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $5.2M | $4.2M | $3.7M | $5.5M | $6.0M | $6.4M | $6.8M | $7.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Depreciation | $11.4M | $12.5M | $13.2M | $15.6M | $17.8M | $20.2M | $22.5M | $24.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-96.3M | $-24.2M | $-108.0M | $-15.1M | $-13.9M | $-12.5M | $-11.2M | $-9.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -34.5% | -7.8% | -32.4% | -3.9% | -3.1% | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $29.0M | $-21.8M | $86.2M | $39.7M | $42.3M | $45.0M | $47.9M | $50.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -175.2% | 495.4% | -54.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 10.4% | -7.0% | 25.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.927 | 0.860 | 0.797 | 0.740 | 0.686 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $36.8M | $36.4M | $35.9M | $35.4M | $34.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $36.8M | $73.2M | $109.1M | $144.5M | $179.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.16 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.4% |
| Total Debt | $220.6M |
| Market Cap | $382.9M |
| Total Capital | $603.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 36.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 63.4% |
| WACC | 7.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $50.8M |
| Terminal Value | $976.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $670.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $179.4M |
| Net Debt | $131.7M |
| Equity Value | $717.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 77.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $9 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +93.5% |
Valuation Summary
$9.25
Implied Price
$4.78
Current Price
+93.5%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC
BIGC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-18.30
-482.8%
Peer Median: 68.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 23.4x
P/S Ratio
$10.34
+116.4%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BIGC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BIGC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -18.0x | 68.7x | 46.5x | -126.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 23.4x | 26.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.1x | 2.5x | 5.6x | -53.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.35B | 24.4x | 13.9x | 2.9x | |
| $3.22B | 0.0x | 115.6x | 14.6x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.7x | |
| $1.34B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.4x | |
| $0.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.1x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.0x | |
| $0.28B | 0.0x | 42.8x | 0.1x | |
| $0.15B | 68.7x | 23.4x | 2.5x | |
| $67.95B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 18.7x |